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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Archie Bland

Tuesday briefing: Some Democrats are grimly convinced that Trump is going to win. What does the evidence show?

Donald Trump on a podium surrounded by supporters holding flags and banners.
Donald Trump at a rally in Madison Square Garden, New York City, on Sunday. Photograph: John Angelillo/UPI/Rex/Shutterstock

Good morning. With a week to go until America votes, the polls consistently show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a statistical dead heat.

The nerds who simulate the race hundreds of times to model the likelihood of each result are consistently finding extraordinarily even chances between the two. And nothing that happens – not assassination attempts, Kamalamentum, convention speeches, running mate selections, celebrity endorsements, multi-million-dollar political ads, the debate, erratic rally performances, or plausible accusations of fascist tendencies – seems to change anything for more than a minute. The election, in summary, looks too close to call.

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