President Donald Trump's approval rating among white voters in Florida has fallen to the edge of negative territory, a striking reversal in a state and demographic group that helped power his return to the White House.
Data displayed by the Civiqs public opinion tracker showed that 47% of white Floridians approved of Trump's job performance as of Sept. 17, while 46% disapproved. Another 7% said they neither approved nor disapproved.
The numbers leave Trump with a net approval rating of just one percentage point among white residents of Florida. If disapproval overtakes approval, it would mark the first time during the Civiqs tracking period that the president's rating with the group has fallen underwater.
At the beginning of Trump's second term, the Civiqs chart placed his approval among white Floridians above 60%, with disapproval in the mid-30s. The lines have moved steadily toward each other since then, leaving a gap of more than 25 points nearly erased.
Civiqs conducts daily interviews through an online research panel and models its results using dynamic multilevel regression and post-stratification, commonly known as MRP. The statistical method is designed to produce estimates for states and demographic groups, although subgroup figures should be interpreted with greater caution than results from a large, dedicated statewide poll.
Trump's deterioration among white Floridians is especially notable because that constituency has long been central to Republican dominance in the state. Exit polling from the 2024 presidential election indicated that Trump carried Florida's white voters by roughly 63% to 37%.
Trump won Florida overall by more than 13 percentage points in 2024, receiving 56.1% of the vote compared with 43% for Kamala Harris, according to official results from the Florida Department of State.
His weakening standing in the state is not limited to white voters. Previous Civiqs estimates placed Trump's overall net approval in Florida deeply underwater, despite the state's transformation from a closely divided battleground into a Republican stronghold.
The Florida numbers emerge amid broader warning signs for Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Sunday placed Trump's national approval rating at 32%, the lowest recorded during his political career. Only 17% approved of his handling of the cost of living, while Republican approval of his performance fell from 82% to 73% in one week.
The poll found that rising prices and the war with Iran were weighing heavily on the president's standing. Gasoline and diesel costs have increased as the conflict disrupted energy markets, while 82% of respondents said they expected the war to continue for an extended period.
An NBC News poll released over the weekend painted a less severe but still damaging picture, placing Trump's approval at 41% and his disapproval at 56%. Most registered voters said they believed his policies had hurt the economy.
The shift among white Floridians does not necessarily mean those voters will support Democratic candidates in November. Approval ratings measure views of the president's performance, not voting intentions, and dissatisfied Republicans may still vote for GOP candidates or stay home.
However, the narrowing margin threatens one of Trump's most reliable political foundations. In a state he won decisively less than two years ago, the question is no longer whether his approval has declined among white voters, but whether it is about to cross a line that once appeared politically unthinkable.
