Closing summary
And, on that note, we will be closing the blog for today.
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Polish prime minister Donald Tusk has said that intelligence assessments show Russian “plans for hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland” over the winter (17:23), with “provocations ... far more dangerous that those we have faced so far” (17:33).
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Tusk said the coming autumn and winter is likely to be “the most critical moment” in Russia’s full-scale aggression on Ukraine (17:20) as he warned Russia will also try to test Nato’s resolve in defending its eastern flank (17:28).
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Polish PM earlier warned that “if anyone dares to attack us, they will face a resolute response from us and our allies,” as he responded to growing aggression from Russia (17:15).
Earlier today,
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Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson has resigned from his post, as final results of the Swedish parliamentary election confirmed his four-party coalition will not have a majority in the new parliament (13:57).
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The former prime minister and left-leaning bloc leader, Magdalena Andersson, welcomed the result, vowing to lead the country “in a new direction” (15:33).
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However, Kristersson and his allies cast doubt on whether the left-leaning bloc of four parties will be able to build a stable coalition to form the next government (14:10, 14:24, 16:00).
Elsewhere,
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Canadian prime minister Mark Carney has called for closer ties between Canada and the EU on trade, energy, “pooled” sovereignty, mobility in a warmly received speech at the European parliament in Strasbourg (12:22).
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He welcomed the EU’s suggestion of an “associate membership” for Canada, but said “what matters is the substance” as he set out a number of key areas of focus for further talks with the EU
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Carney also rejected Trump’s criticism of the plans, saying “no one is going to dictate our culture or with thom we can strike agreements internationally”.
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at [email protected].
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
Tusk's stark warning about Russian plans for hybrid strikes against Ukraine's allies - summary
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Polish prime minister Donald Tusk has said that intelligence assessments show Russian “plans for hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland” in the coming months (17:23).
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In a sombre speech in the Polish parliament, Tusk warned that Poland will face ‘provocations ... far more dangerous that those we have faced so far’ (17:33) as Russia is expected to test Nato’s resolve in defending the territory of its members on the eastern flank.
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The Polish prime minister cautioned that the coming autumn and winter is likely to be “the most critical moment” in Russia’s full-scale aggression on Ukraine (17:20).
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Tusk said the available intelligence suggested Russia will pretend any incidents are “accidental” to further stress test Nato’s article 5.
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Tusk also warned that some European parties “currently gaining in strength” are only “looking for an excuse” to not defend Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania, calling for a united response to any threat in the region (17:28).
Updated
Tusk did not specifically reveal which intelligence agencies he was citing.
However, Poland’s security services minister Tomasz Siemoniak met CIA director John Ratcliffe last week, just days after his much-discussed trip to Russia.
Poland’s defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz is also planning to go to the US next week for urgent talks with US defence secretary Pete Hegseth.
Make of that what you will.
Tusk and other key ministers also repeatedly quoted Polish intelligence agencies in the past, whether in response to repeated security incidents, airspace provocations near Poland, or arrests of people suspected of planning acts of sabotage on behalf of Russian intelligence services.
Poland will face 'provocations ... far more dangerous that those we have faced so far,' Tusk warns
Tusk also warned right-wing opposition parties that “inciting hostility towards the European Union, towards our allies and towards Ukrainians is simply implementing Russia’s strategy.”
“Everyone must finally understand this,” he says.
Going back to security threats, he says that while “there is nothing to suggest an invasion,” Poland will “have to pass a very serious test, because we will certainly be the target of provocations and incidents far more dangerous than those we have faced so far.”
He ends his speech with a plea to the parliament:
“So we must pass this test – all of us, both politicians and the nation as a whole.
That is why I will appeal to all of you, without exception, that wherever the issue concerns the security of our borders, the airspace over Poland, or the safety of our homes, we must speak with one voice, take joint decisions, not hesitate … The nation will truly hold us all, without exception, to account for this.”
And he ends his speech on this note.
Some politicians 'just looking for excuses' to not defend Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Tusk warns
Tusk also talks about Poland’s absolute resolve to defence all other Nato countries.
He says “this is very important, because as. a border country … we are likely to need allied loyalty under Article 5 more than Portugal or Ireland.”
He continues:
“It is not the case that all politicians in the west, in the United States or in Europe, are thinking about how to defend Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and that they are all eager to prove immediately that they are staunch allies and will come to our aid under Article 5.
Far from all of them. There are many politicians, as well as political forces, which are currently gaining in strength and influence in European countries, who are just looking for an excuse: we won’t die for Poland; we won’t die for Latvia or Lithuania.”
He says that’s why Poland must be very openly ready to follow through on its allied commitments.
“Article 5, loyalty within the alliance, and faithfulness to our commitments must become our hallmark,” he says.
Updated
Tusk says Russia is not prepared or willing to get involved in any serious discussions about ending its aggression against Ukraine “at least until the end of winter.”
“They are convinced that this winter will be a time of dire crisis for Ukraine,” he says.
Intelligence shows Russian 'plans for hybrid strikes ... against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland,' Tusk says
Tusk says that intelligence assessments show “plans for hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland”.
He says the latest intelligence on this is “very consistent and convincing”.
He says that Russia is expected to pretend that any incidents are “accidental” in a bid to “paralyse or at least weaken Nato’s resolve to invoke the relevant provisions” of the Nato treaty.
“There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles could be launched into the territory of one or more Nato countries on the eastern flank, and could even cause damage, and the official narrative will be that this is an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to consider any response from Nato.
The aim … will be to weaken Nato’s integrity in general and, above all, to convince … member states that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical – that is, the assumption that no one will want to die for Latvia or Lithuania, given that we are dealing with incidents rather than a declaration of war.”
He says he expects Russia to use “recurrent” incidents to use them as “an increasingly stark illustration of Nato’s helplessness” to respond in a united manner.
Updated
Coming autumn, winter will be 'most critical moment' in Russian war against Ukraine, Tusk says
Tusk is now speaking in Polish parliament, speaking about what he believes Poland and Ukraine’s other allies should be expecting in the coming months as Russia ramps up pressure and threats against Nato.
He says he wants to outline “the most likely scenario for the next few months, as it is a scenario involving serious events and one that requires us to be focused, serious and, above all, mentally prepared to face difficult challenges.”
He says “late autumn and winter” are expected to be “the most critical moment” in the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine so far.
Tusk noted that Russia is increasing its attacks using jet-powered drones, which he believes “very few [countries] are currently prepared to effectively counter.”
“Russia’s objective today is to destroy Ukraine’s economy and logistics on as large a scale as possible. … Ukraine is expected to face constant strikes of very high frequency and intensity. This includes the six main Ukrainian cities, with the destruction of warehouses containing all types of products essential, first and foremost, for the country’s defence, as well as – as we have witnessed in recent weeks – very severe damage to the railway infrastructure.”
'If anyone dares to attack us, they will face a resolute response from us and allies,' Poland's Tusk says
Meanwhile, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk warned that “if anyone dares to attack us, they will face a resolute response from us and our allies,” as he responded to growing tensions and aggression from Russia.
In a sombre speech marking the 87th anniversary of the 1939 Soviet invasion of Poland, Tusk said he would “prefer to speak only about the heroic deeds recorded in the history books,” but “Russia’s escalating aggression is not letting me do that.”
“History, as we know, does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme, and we must interpret these rhymes of history today with due seriousness,” he said.
Responding to recent Russian incidents in and around Poland – including last year’s drone incursion into Poland, a Russian missile straying into Poland in July, and recent incidents at the Polish-Ukrainian border – Tusk insisted that Warsaw “will not be intimidated.”
“Russia does not need to cross our border. It is already waging a hybrid war against us using drones, acts of sabotage and disinformation on the internet. We know from our allies that the coming months may bring further provocations,” he said.
He said he was “neither afraid nor naive” about the dangers posed by Russia.
In a strong speech, he continued:
“I am from Gdańsk. In May 1939, a certain French politician – a future Nazi collaborator – asked in the French press why anyone should die for Gdańsk. A few months later, the whole of Europe was dying.
To those who say today that this is not our war, I would like to remind them of this lesson from history. In 1939, our alliances existed only on paper, really. We were left on our own. Today, we are members of Nato and the European Union.”
We spend almost 5% of our GDP on defence. This is almost twice as much as Germany and twice as much as France. We are building one of the strongest armies in Europe; we secured €44bn from the EU’s SAFE programme, the most from all EU countries. And Polish borders are today the best marked borders on the entire continent.
Europe, which in 1939 did not want to die for Gdańsk, today funds Polish armaments.
But we are aware that even the largest army is not enough if the nation is not ready.
Therefore, I address all those who look at the future with anxiety:
We are not seeking war, but if anyone dares to attack us, they will face a resolute response from us and our allies. Long live a free and secure Republic of Poland.”
He is also speaking in the Polish parliament now, promising to set out further details on the threats facing Poland.
I’ll be keeping an eye on his comments.
Germany, US sign 'letter of intent' on close defence cooperation, despite previous clashes
Berlin correspondent
Following months during which the German government has sought to convince the public that militarily (and otherwise) Germany must stop relying on its erstwhile trustworthy partner, the United States, due to the erratic, rude and unruly behaviour of its president, the defence ministers of both countries signed a “letter of intent” this week, signaling close cooperation after all.
Germany’s defence minister, Boris Pistorius, visibly surprised at the warm reception he received in Washington earlier this week, said after his first meeting with US war minister Pete Hegseth he had only heard warm words of praise for Berlin over its contribution to joint defence goals.
This was in sharp contrast to the bitter tirade Hegseth had delivered to European defence ministers just weeks ago, accusing them of abandoning the US in the Iran war, or to the message disseminated by president Trump earlier this year when he announced the withdrawal of thousands of US troops who are stationed in Germany, in what was interpreted as a clear snub to Berlin.
At a time of dwindling military stocks – the US looking at its war against Iran, Germany, focused mainly on helping to defend Ukraine - the counterparts’ intention, so the letter states, is for “enhanced bilateral cooperation in the defence sector to support transatlantic industrial production and maintenance capacities” and although using slightly wishy-washy terminology, it suggests quite a political U-turn.
From accepting that the Trump administration had mentally withdrawn itself from Nato, and Berlin should become more independent from Washington as a result, the government of Friedrich Merz has now signed up to the statement “Germany and the United States agree that the current political challenges require a robust and mutually beneficial, closely integrated defence industry base on both sides of the Atlantic,” as the declaration reads.
The powerful industries of both countries “can and should” complement each other more closely in the future in the production of “state of the art” weapons systems, components and complex munitions.
Pistorius has sought to play down accusations that this is a contradiction, painting it instead as a pragmatic and direct reaction to current tensions. (What we sometimes refer to as Realpolitik.)
Today he will take delivery of F-35 fighter jets manufactured for Germany’s armed forces in Texas, before heading home tomorrow.
Romanian EU lawmaker Siegfried Muresan proposed as Romania's next prime minister
Sweden is not the only European country working to change its prime minister.
Following a day of consultations with political leaders, Romania’s president, Nicușor Dan, has nominated EU lawmaker Siegfried Mureșan to become the next prime minister.
Romania has had a caretaker government since early May, when prime minister Ilie Bolojan lost a vote of confidence in parliament.
“Romania needs a government,” Dan said, adding that “people’s lives depend on it.”
However, he acknowledged that none of the prospective candidates can currently command a clear majority in parliament, as political parties remain cannot agree on the way forward.
Dan said he had seen “a great deal of concern amongst the parties about the elections and far less concern for national interest.”
He added that Mureșan, 44, had the necessary experience to take on the role and attempt to break the political deadlock.
The MEP has been a member of the European parliament since 2014. Born to German and Romanian parents, he is also a vice-president of the centre-right European People’s Party, the European parliament’s largest grouping.
Dan noted in his statement that Mureșan had asked for time to consider the proposal, but shortly after the address, the MEP confirmed on Facebook that he had accepted the offer.
It remains to be seen whether he can actually command the support of parliament, though.
Updated
EU wants 'credible' solutions on trade with China
Senior correspondent
Elsewhere, the EU and China are continuing efforts to avert a trade war after an hour long call between EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and his Chinese counterpart Wang Wengtao.
The EU reiterated the need to move from “rhetoric to results” with a “credible” solution that will curb China’s growing €1bn a day surplus in trade with the bloc.
Extensive work mapping the potential safeguards including quotas and price floors and possible retaliatory measures by the Chines have already been carried out in advance of Sefcovic’s planned meeting with Wang on 8 October.
A spokesperson said the call lasted more than an hour and took stock of the work carried out by officials so far covering the management of Chinese exports to the EU, the EU’s access to the Chinese market and export controls on rare earths.
Restrictions on exports of rare earths were imposed by Beijing in April 2025 but were suspended for a year last November after Donald Trump’s meeting with Xi Xingping in Korea last October.
Experts expect that suspension to continue after the Trump Xi summit next week in Washington but the EU will be pushing for a crave out for the bloc.
“While genuine engagement remains a priority, it is equally important that first concrete outcomes are delivered at the second session of the Trade and Investment Council in Beijing in Cotober which the commissioner will co-chair – a signal that we are moving from rhetoric to results,” said the EU’s deputy chief spokesperson Olof Gill.
“That outcome needs to be credible,” he added.
Centre party leader thanks outgoing PM, says will be 'a constructive force' to keep government 'rooted in the centre'
Meanwhile, Centre party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist also thanked the outgoing prime minister Ulf Kristersson praising his “efforts and leadership during the past term.”
“He has led Sweden through a tumultuous time with a changed security situation and Sweden’s historic entry into Nato. Being prime minister is Sweden’s most important role, and it deserves respect regardless of political divides,” she said.
Speaking about what’s next, she added:
“Now Sweden is entering a new political phase. The Centre party will be a constructive force to ensure Sweden gets a functioning government with a policy rooted in the centre.”
What that will actually mean in practice, we will have to wait and see.
SVT reported that the leaders of the four opposition parties are planning first meetings already.
The current parliament speaker Andreas Norlén is also hoping to individually speak with party leaders tomorrow, SVT said, getting ahead of the formal schedule (14:10).
Right-leaning bloc 'ready to continue governing Sweden if they fail,' liberal leader says
Liberal party leader Simona Mohamsson praised Kristersson’s time in government, saying he led “Sweden’s most liberal government ever,” and hailing what she sees as its successes on education and crime.
Her Liberal party, part of the outgoing government led by Ulf Kristersson, cleared the 4% threshold into the new parliament with 5.3% of the vote last Sunday.
Mohamsson thanked Kristersson for “four important years,” and giving Sweden “a fresh start when it needed it the most.”
“Now it is up to Magdalena Andersson to show whether she can put together any government foundation from the opposition’s mixed bag of left socialists, cultural relativists, and Centre Party members. My teammates to the right and I stand ready to continue governing Sweden if they fail,” she said, echoing the sentiment expressed by Kristersson earlier (13:57).
Christian Democrat leader Ebba Busch also posted a message in a similar tone, conceding the result, but praising the outgoing government’s track record.
“At present, there is no one who commands a majority in the parliament. The red-greens have not automatically won the government power. Various parties’ red lines before election day can lead to a complicated government formation,” she said.
Similar to Kristersson earlier, she also hinted at possible alternative majorities formed along the economic policy lines.
Updated
Sweden's election winner Andersson vows to 'move Sweden forward'
Meanwhile, the leader of the left-wing bloc that won Sweden’s election, Magdalena Andersson, vowed Thursday to lead the country in a “new direction” after four years of right-wing rule backed by the far right.
“The Swedish people have voted for a new direction for our country. Voted for unity and against division. The Swedish people have voted to move Sweden forward, and I want to realise the new direction that you have voted for,” she said in a speech posted on social media.
In the address, recorded in a prime ministerial aesthetics and with a Swedish flag in the background, she said she wanted to lead Sweden “away from conflicts from the sake of conflicts, and in a direction based on unity” between key parties as political talks about the new government are set to begin.
“It is up to all political parties to put the party politics aside and put Sweden and the Swedish people first,” she said.
She also talked about priorities on climate, schools, health care, and social care as examples of areas where she wanted to change the government’s policy.
Kristersson's language suggests he still hopes left-leaning bloc will fail to form government - snap analysis
It’s worth noting that the language used by Kristersson in his resignation letter – particularly a reference to irreconcilable differences in the various parties’ stated positions (13:57) – is not accidental.
The left-leaning bloc – led by former prime minister Magdalena Andersson and her Social Democrats - consists of four parties, and there are significant friction points between them, particularly between the Left Party and the Centre Party.
The Centre Party had previously suggested it would not accept ministers from the Left; the Left, particularly now emboldened by its strong election result, is unlikely to agree to no top jobs in a government it is expected to support.
If either party drops out of the arrangement, the bloc will struggle to form a government, as there are no viable alternatives.
But their voters generally expect them to work together.
And a leading figure from the Centre Party implied on Monday (Europe Live, Monday) that they could probably find a way of working with the Left, confirming the party would take part in exploratory talks led by the Social Democrats.
Still, the discussions are likely to be tricky and could take weeks before they agree on a path forward.
Outgoing PM Kristersson is clearly hoping those discussions fail.
His supporters repeatedly pointed out before the election that you could often see the four leaders of the four right-leaning parties in his bloc together – in fact, they also had a dinner together Monday night – and they marketed themselves a “stable” arrangement that was sort of ready to go.
But same didn’t really apply for the red bloc amid some apparent internal divisions between the leaders, leaving lots of questions mark to solve only now.
Kristersson appears to be keen to exploit some of these differences.
On election night, he suggested forming an alternative coalition against socialist economic policies – widely interpreted as an attempt to woo the Centre Party back to his side.
Even then, huge questions remain over how he could secure a majority without the far-right Sweden Democrats, an option that remains unacceptable to centrists.
Expect these talks to pick up speed now that we have the official results – and a looming vacancy at the top.
Updated
Timeline for next steps after Kristersson's resignation - snap analysis
In terms of next steps, there is a bit of time before the formal process of electing the new prime minister will get under way.
The new Riksdag is expected to convene on 28 September and elect its speaker on the same day.
The new prime minister can be proposed the next day, 29 September. That leaves just under two weeks for informal talks between now and then, and Kristersson will stay in post until a new PM is picked.
As explained in our live blog on Sunday, Sweden has a slightly unusual system of “negative parliamentarism,” which means that “if there’s a prime minister proposed, then if there is the absence of an absolute majority in parliament against the proposal, it’s interpreted as support.”
As Nicholas Aylott of Södertörn University explained it to me on Sunday:
“So a party that doesn’t really want to give full support to this proposed candidate – maybe because it’s not going to be part of the coalition, but which can just about live with it, and doesn’t have a better alternative – it can abstain from the vote, and that’s counted as passive support. This makes it much easier to form minority governments.”
Updated
Meanwhile, Swedish public broadcaster SVT reported that just before Kristersson’s statement was published online, someone brought four cakes into the Social Democrat’s HQ in central Stockholm.
Guess we now know the reasons behind the delivery.
Swedish PM Kristersson resigns after election defeat
And in the last few minute, Sweden’s prime minister Ulf Kristersson has resigned from the post after official results confirmed that his right-leaning bloc lost last Sunday’s parliamentary election.
The four left-leaning parties, with former prime minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats as the largest party, won by just 50,359 votes, the final count showed.
The four left-leaning bloc will have 176 seats in the new parliament to 173 for Kristersson’s three-party coalition government and the far-right Sweden Democrats who were expected to join the administration after the vote, the Tidö bloc.
In a letter posted on X, Kristersson said that following the tight election results “may have complicated the conditions for the new government to be formed” with contradicting statements from different parties on their positions.
“Constructive openness from the parties in parliament will now be needed for a prime minister to be accepted, and for a new government to be able to receive support for its state budget.”
“Discussions will need to be held with all parties to find ways around these deadlocks and to create the conditions for a stable and effective government.
“It is the speaker who will lead the next steps towards forming a new government. In order for that work to begin immediately, I hereby request to be relieved of my duties as prime minister.”
Updated
And on that note, thanks to Deborah Cole for joining us for this Q&A this afternoon!
Look out for more stories form Germany in the coming days as we will keep a close eye on the state elections this weekend.
And we’re pivoting to breaking news from Sweden…
Q: What explains some pro-Russian sentiment in Germany?
And, finally, mikeatsmileend asks:
“Why is it that the most pro Russian sentiment in Germany is found in the former DDR which was oppressed by a Russian backed state for so long? One from which in 1989 people were desperate to escape from. Why such short memories?”
Deborah says:
“This is such a great question (they all have been!) and the reasons are complex.
Sure, in some quarters it’s solid pro-Russian sentiment derived from a sense that Moscow has been an important and effective counterbalance to US power since the second world war.
Many who grew up in East Germany are fluent in Russian and spent time in the former Soviet Union as teens or young adults so there can be a cultural affinity.
You also have a deep sense among many in eastern Germany that Russia is a geopolitical fact of life that’s not going anywhere so better to not poke the bear.
When it comes to Ukraine, many buy into Moscow’s narrative that it has a rightful historical claim to determine its future, or accept its line that Nato and the EU backed Russia into a corner after the cold war and shouldn’t be surprised it lashed out.
The AfD and the much smaller BSW parties very much play to this thinking.”
Q: What are we expecting from progressive parties in this weekend's state elections?
JamesRyan asks:
“There is much discussion about Merz and the CDU, which is understandable given the current political situation, however what are the potential consequences for progressive parties arising from these elections?
If The left prevail in Berlin and the Social Democrats win in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are there any lessons these parties could extrapolate to achieve success on a federal level?
Conversely, if they do not, particularly for the SPD, what does it reflect about its position in contemporary German politics?”
Deborah answers:
“You’re absolutely right that the left-leaning parties are likely to have a good night on Sunday, relatively speaking.
But their expected strong showings won’t really indicate momentum on the national level.
Take Manuela Schwesig, the Social Democratic premier of Meck-Pomm. She mounted a remarkable comeback over the summer, in part based on her popularity in the region and in part by demanding the national coalition, of which her SPD is a part, water down key reforms to the pension system. It is also worth noting that her surge from behind in the polls came entirely at the expense of the mainstream parties; the AfD has hardly budged from first place with about 37%.
Nevertheless Schwesig may well win re-election and then mount a leadership challenge at the national level of the party, potentially putting her in pole position to be the SPD’s chancellor candidate at the next general election.
But the SPD remains at a dismal 12-13% in national polls, and left-wing Die Linke not far behind, effectively splitting that part of the progressive vote.”
Q: What is the German media landscape and how is AfD treated?
Wd_reader asks:
“In terms of election coverage, indeed political coverage in general, does the German media have a similar landscape to the UK? For example, a UK equivalent of the left wing Die Linke party would be vilified by most media (TV, print and online) and an equivalent of the AfD would likely enjoy favourable coverage.”
Deborah says:
“The mainstream media landscape in Germany is fairly solidly anti-AfD, albeit to varying degrees.
This creates obvious tensions, also because public broadcasters are required to give it something like equal time given it holds nearly 100 seats in the Bundestag.
The interviews of its leaders and candidates are usually sparring matches and the best ones manage to fact-check in real time (Hut ab – respect – to those who manage).
The far-left Die Linke is generally treated as fringe but not a pariah like the AfD, which not incidentally from its earliest days has sought to slash funding for the public broadcasters.”
Q: Why is Merz seen as a very reluctant critic of the US?
Chymist asks:
“There is a lot of publicity being given to Macron and his non-compliance with the Trump world view. Why is Merz seen as a very reluctant critic of the US?”
Deborah replies:
“Transatlanticism has historically run much deeper in Germany than in France, and Merz’s CDU is its traditional champion.
The West German CDU paid a decades-long debt of gratitude to America for the country’s economic and moral reconstruction after the second world war while Christian Democrats raised in East Germany (such as a certain Angela Merkel) credited Washington with marshalling support for German national reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Trump of course has upset the apple cart in countless ways and made a mockery of attempts to contain him with charm offensives – dinner atop the Eiffel Tower and a military parade on the Champs-Élysées, anyone?
Merz at first tried as well to find a kind of businessman-to-businessman rapport with Trump and “strike a deal” on trade and Ukraine support. But the scales seem to have fallen from his eyes too.”
Q: Is AfD going to get electoral success again in near future and what options Merz has to resist?
GrumpyOldFool (what a nickname, by the way) is asking:
“Is the electoral success of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt likely to be repeated elsewhere in the near future, and if so, what options does Chancellor Merz have to resist? Is he being blamed for AfD’s success by his partner parties, and is his Chancellorship in doubt as a result?”
Deborah says:
“There is a general sense of helplessness in the German political establishment about the seemingly inexorable rise of the AfD, which has been rocked by scandals, infighting and serious doubts about the legal and fiscal viability of most of its programme.
In the two state elections being held on Sunday, the AfD is expected to make gains again. But it is worth mentioning that if the polls are correct it stands no chance of gaining an absolute majority in either region (it came VERY close in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks ago).
The much-mentioned Brandmauer (firewall) will hold in both states, keeping the far right out of power.
But as we see in election after election, the bigger the portion of seats for the AfD, the harder it is to form a coherent coalition among the remaining parties.
Merz has certainly borne a big part of the blame among Germans for the AfD’s continued success, largely because he for years said that he alone could stop it by a) using constitutional means to curb irregular immigration and b) getting the economy moving again. He’s had more success on the former than the latter so far, suggesting the reasons for AfD support go deeper.”
Q: Is there anything that could stop AfD winning power in 2029?
And with AfD now polling nationally at around 30% for the first time, is there anything you can think of that could stop them winning in 2029? Are the various de-legalisation processes still ongoing?
Deborah says:
“Three years is such a long time in (German) politics!
But the direction of travel is worrying, particularly as the mainstream parties look incapable of delivering the dramatic change that large parts of the electorate appear to be craving.
This is especially true with the kind of loveless coalitions that can be formed after the AfD takes a big share of the pie. Something that’s striking – and concerning – is how Teflon-proofed the AfD seems to be when it comes to scandal: corruption allegations and dubious ties with Russia and China don’t leave a mark.
This is in a country where plagiarism in a decades-old university thesis or misuse of air miles were once enough to end a political career.
What seems clear is that simply labelling the AfD and its voters deplorable and extremist isn’t an answer.
Which brings me to a quick word on the calls to ban the party: the temptation is strong to try to remove the far-right threat with the stroke of a pen. But its supporters are clearly not going anywhere and the constitutional bar is incredibly, probably prohibitively, high.”
Q: Will Merz deliver on reforms he promised before 2025 election?
ColinDerek asks:
“Germany’s embattled chancellor Friedrich Merz was elected in 2025 despite having no prior leadership experience.
He made many promises: to revive the stagnant economy, cut red tape, lower energy costs for homeowners, and return to nuclear energy. He also pledged “zero tolerance” on irregular migration, to reform or replace Bürgergeld, overhaul pensions and healthcare, and provide more assertive leadership within the EU. Merz declared that “Germany can be relied on again” and proposed establishing a national security council.
The reality today looks very different. The economy remains stagnant, and massive energy costs have forced the government to introduce new taxes, including CO₂ surcharges on fuel and heating. The social system appears out of control, and the government seems to lack the skill and capacity for broader reforms. Germany faces a worsening housing crisis, with high rents and too little new construction.
Herr Merz’s political style is often described as abrasive and lacking empathy. He frequently fails to read the German public mood or understand the economic pressures facing ordinary citizens.
My question is: with the upcoming elections, do you think Herr Merz will change direction, put Germany first, and stay true to the original reform promises he made in 2025?”
Deborah responds:
“There are strong doubts as to whether the 70-year-old Merz can fundamentally change his spots at this point.
The rank-and-file of the party picked him for his swagger and for his promises of “durchregieren,” meaning a CEO-style of governance with clear decisions and follow-through.
His lack of experience in political office has been evident, particularly at the top of a coalition that requires finesse, diplomacy and a deep understanding of the complex levers of power in Germany.
That said, the in-tray you cite would be daunting for even the most skilled, popular and experienced leader.
If I had to wager, I’d say the coalition government with the Social Democrats will continue to make incremental progress on most of the fronts you mention. But a sense of real renewal and optimism will be very hard to come by, compounding the frustrations of voters who thought they had cast a ballot for change.”
Q: Who could replace Friedrich Merz and what would it mean for Germany's international commitments?
And if Merz was ousted, who could replace him as the chancellor and what would it mean for Germany’s international commitments, particularly on Ukraine and Nato?
Deborah says:
“If Merz is replaced against his will, something that is relatively complex under Germany’s Basic Law, or if he steps aside of his own accord under the pressure, the name that keeps coming up is Hendrik Wüst, the premier of the most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia.
He’s a relative moderate, governs in a coalition with the ecologist Greens, at 51 is a generation younger than Merz and has a sunnier disposition. He seems quite happy however to bide his time, at least until after he, as is expected, wins re-election as state premier next April, which would strengthen his hand.
He could also wait until the next scheduled general election in 2029, in which hardly a soul at this point expects Merz to run again.
The CDU is solidly pro-Ukrainian and despite all his bad press, Merz generally gets high marks for remaining resolute on arms supplies to Kyiv. There is no reason to doubt at this point that any CDU successor would waver.”
Q: Could Friedrich Merz be out of job after this weekend?
Using my position as the host of this live blog, let me kick us off with one of my own questions to Deborah:
How possible do you think is that Merz could be out of his job after this weekend? What are the expectations and the worst case scenario for him for the two upcoming state elections?
Berlin correspondent Deborah Cole says:
I think the odds are that Merz will still be in his job for some time to come but the fact we’re even discussing the possibility underscores the stakes of the two regional elections on Sunday and the general state of German politics.
Merz’s incumbent CDU risks coming in second place behind the far-left Linke in Berlin but it’s unlikely to be a humiliating rout.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (from here on Meck-Pomm to save everyone’s eyes and my fingers) the situation looks much dicier for the conservatives.
If polls are correct they could get their first single-digit result in a state election in 75 years and even risk falling below the 5-% threshold to representation.
That would massively increase the pressure on Merz.
Our Berlin correspondent Deborah Cole is here to answer your questions, so let’s start…
Q&A with Deborah Cole: Your questions on Germany, Merz and what's coming next
Right, as promised earlier, let’s turn to Germany and talk about Germany, Merz, and what’s coming next with two more closely contested sets of state election this weekend.
Let’s pick some of our questions and get you responses from our Berlin correspondent, Deborah Cole.
Closer ties with EU will 'make Canada stronger,' Carney says, as he rejects Trump's criticism saying 'no one' can 'dictate ... with whom we can strike agreements'
Carney also responded to a question on Trump’s comments overnight.
He stresses the proposed partnership with the EU is “a positive initiative” and “about building” positive ties and not a reaction to anything externally.
He says the potential to let Canada and the EU work together on knowledge, creation, pushing frontiers would be “fundamentally positive”.
“It will make Europe stronger. It will make Canada stronger. It will make, I’ll speak for Canada, Canada a better partner, with the United States.”
He then says that “Canadians are united that nobody is going to tell us what language we speak; no one is going to dictate our culture or with whom we can strike agreements internationally.”
And that ends his press conference.
Updated
'What matters is the substance,' Carney says, as he waves away questions about 'associate membership'
Carney is now speaking to reporters and taking questions after his speech.
He says he is looking forward to working further on the proposed partnership with Canada, with the upcoming EU-Canada summit at the end of October expected to be the next big moment in the process.
But he plays down the commentary on the “associate membership” and says it’s “up to Europe” to agree on the precise nomenclature.
“What matters is the substance,” he says.
“What are we actually building together? How do we combine our strengths in a way that serve our people better, protect our fundamental rights, and create prosperity?,” he says.
He adds he outlined some of the potentially key areas in his speech earlier (12:22).
He stresses that “Canada is not in a position nor seeking to become a full member of the European Union,” and it will be “a different framework” that would need to be “relevant” for both countries.
Carney calls for closer ties between Canada and EU in contrast to increasingly assertive superpowers - summary
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Canadian prime minister Mark Carney has called for closer ties between Canada and the EU on trade, energy, “pooled” sovereignty, mobility in a warmly received speech at the European parliament in Strasbourg.
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Using the comparison of a resilient forest able to withstand crises, he proposed to “deepen those roots, widen this canopy, and grow a transatlantic forest under which our citizens can flourish as free people on free ground every single day” (12:10).
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He said he was not “proposing a third bloc” to challenge “great power rivals, only with better manners,” but an alliance of resilient nations “principled enough that our strength reinforces international law rather than seeks to replace it” (12:09).
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He said the strengthened partnership was needed amid a “ferocious storm” in the world caused by increasing weaponisation of trade and financial markets, technology, and ever-more assertive Big Tech platforms challenging the existing world order. “A single tree will come down in it; a forest will not,” he said (11:56).
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He set out possible areas of cooperation on strategic autonomy, critical resources, digital trade and services, student mobility, academic research cooperation (11:58, 12:00, 12:04, 12:07).
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He welcomed the EU’s proposals of “an associate membership” of the bloc for Canada (12:02).
Updated
Carney calls for 'transatlantic forest' of values and free people
Carney ends with a call to “deepen those roots, widen this canopy, and grow a transatlantic forest under which our citizens can flourish as free people on free ground every single day.”
He gets a long, standing ovation.
This speech landed very, very well here.
Updated
EU-Canada alliance not meant to 'propose third bloc, a great power rival, only with better manners'
Carney says he “wants to be precise about what I am not proposing. I’m not proposing a third bloc in order to become a great power rival, only with better manners.”
“We do not seek power to dominate others. On the contrary, we are pursuing resilience. So no one, no one can control our open markets, impair our sovereignty, threaten our territorial integrity or undermine our freedoms, our democracies, our rule of law.”
He says “a Canada EU alliance would create a beacon for other democracies, an alliance not defined by what we oppose, but about what we are for: freedom, solidarity, prosperity, sustainability.”
“An alliance that builds resilience for what it allows us to do; for our citizens and our citizens to do for themselves; an alliance strong enough so that no one can dictate our choices, and alliance open enough that others can join an alliance principled enough that our strength reinforces international law rather than seeks to replace it.”
Updated
He says that on critical materials, Canada could help with access as it’s “among the top producers of the ten most essential for the energy transition”.
He also talks about how Canada could help the EU with its energy security, including LNH and hydrogen “at large scale to support Europe’s energy security, including by developing and leveraging new port infrastructure in our High North and on our East coast.”
He also talks about “pooling sovereignty” on compute capacity, AI and transparency, and calls for closer integration for financial services.
Carney calls for closer strategic autonomy, trade, student mobility ties with Europe
Carney now speaks in more detail about what he thinks should come from Canada’s new, strong relationship with the EU.
He says Canada and Europe “should secure our strategic autonomy through deep cooperation in the full range of strategic capabilities, including critical minerals, defence, industrial capacity, AI and compute, energy, security, space and payments.”
He wants the two sides to “move towards seamless digital trade and non-agricultural goods and a wide range of services.”
He also says he wants to see deeper people to people ties, “allowing our youth to work, study and live where they want.”
He specifically suggests Canada joining Erasmus+ student exchange scheme and Horizon research scheme.
Carney welcomes suggestion Canada could become EU's associate member
Carney says”the ecosystem we’ve built is not yet equal to the ferocity of the changing climate, and nor is it moving fast enough to match the speed of the upheaval.”
He says he welcomes von der Leyen’s suggestion that Canada could become the EU’s first associate member.
He says “polling shows that an overwhelming majority of Canadians support much closer ties with Europe.”
Carney says in their relationship, Europe “brings so many things market power, research depth, advanced manufacturing, the ability and the will to set standards that the world frequently adopts a defence industrial base that’s being rebuilt at speed,” as “Canada brings energy at huge scale and in every form that the transition requires.”
“We have one of the world’s largest endowments of critical minerals, deep capabilities in space, AI and quantum. Amongst the strongest banking systems and the most expert pension capital. We have unique Arctic geography and privileged access to both Atlantic and Pacific networks.
Where our strengths differ, they complement where they overlap. They create scale. We should build on each other’s strengths deliberately, systematically and rapidly.”
He hails the success of CETA trade deal – even though 10 EU countries are yet to ratify it.
'Diversity confers advantage' in times of shock and crisis, Carney says
Carney says countries should be “bold and deliberate” about forming its alliances, and “not be cowed by the perceived scale of the task.”
“Just as dominance is the arrogance of the hegemon, perfection is the enemy of the good. The economics of this are clear: the leverage of the powerful and an exploitative relationship collapses well before complete independence is achieved.
Because diversity confers advantage. The objective is not self-sufficiency, it’s collective resilience.”
'Europe and Canada are stronger together,' Carney says
Carney says “Canada and the European Union can anchor our ground to hold our values while forming a protective canopy under which our citizens can thrive.”
“This is about sovereignty, our ability to live as we wish. It’s about the freedoms we must fight for every day, because sovereignty requires resilience, the ability to withstand shocks.”
He continues:
“Sovereignty today goes beyond being able to feed, fuel and defend ourselves. It now requires secure access to AI, semiconductors, critical minerals, payment systems, clean energy technologies, vaccines, space based communications and we all have important gaps in these strategic capabilities, and we each must rely on individual nations or individual companies to fill them.
And that creates vulnerabilities, particularly when supposedly global companies prove national in the breach.
Closing these gaps is not possible alone, but it’s very achievable.
Collectively, Canada and Europe are each strong. Europe and Canada are stronger together.”
He continues:
“Canada and Europe are not bound by geography. Even though our Danish friends know that we share a 3000 kilometre border in the Arctic. We are bound by an affinity elective, chosen, renewed and stronger for being so.”
He warns that “our societies are battered by new storms.”
“The disruption caused by climate change, the erosion of democratic norms, the weaponization of trade, the multilateral organisations we used to count on have been weakened …
Today, it is hard to reconcile sovereignty and openness. Economic integration is now being weaponized. Tariffs being used to exert pressure. Financial mechanisms have been used for coercion. Supply chains constitute weak points to be exploited. Technology is transforming the nature of warfare, the structure of our economies and states ability to govern. Tech platforms aspire to sovereignty. They want to set access rules. They want to dictate the rules for regulation and even circumvent them. They want to control our data, spread disinformation, and steal our children’s childhoods.
This combination is a ferocious storm. A single tree will come down in it. A forest will not.
And that’s because beneath the forest floor, the roots of an oak intertwine with those of its neighbours, exchanging nutrients, adding strength to strength, creating a resilient, self-sustaining ecosystem.”
He gets a warm applause.
Updated
'We are not fairweather allies,' Carney says as he stresses EU-Canada links
Carney begins by talking about historical deep ties between Europe and Canada, and recalls a Goethe quote saying “freedom and life must be earned every single day.”
“Not once in 1945, or 1956, or 1989. Every day, including this one,” he says.
He recalls a story of Canadian Lt Leslie Miller, who gathered “a handful of acorns from the shattered European landscape” during the first world war in 1917, carried them home, planted in Ontario and they grew into a majestic forest – with some of them laster repatriated to France and replanted in the same place where they were born.”
He says “seeds, values, ideas, trade, people and progress carried back and forth across the Atlantic for centuries.”
He continues:
“We are not fairweather allies. We do not pursue zero sum deals. Our commitment to the rule of law and our unyielding defence of human dignity, individual freedom and democracy share the same deep roots, the same unwavering dedication.
We hold common values for which we have always fought, and in whose defence we must always remain vigilant. We believe that a strong economy is not an end in itself, but a means to a just society. We are committed stewards of our natural heritage.”
As Carney walks to the podium, someone starts chanting “USA, USA.”
Not a great start.
He laughs it off.
After a brief introduction by European parliament president Metsola stressing the links between Europe and Canada, Carney is finally about to start.
Carney is in, talking to various EU lawmakers.
Greens’ co-leader Terry Reintke is even dressed for the occassion, wearing a jersey of the Canadian hockey team.
He should be starting his speech shortly.
Canadian PM Mark Carney set to address European parliament - watch live
Canadian PM Mark Carney is about to speak at the European parliament after European Commission Ursula von der Leyen suggested yesterday the country could become an “associate member” of the EU.
You can watch along live here:
And I will obviously bring you all the key lines here.
EP's Metsola suggests 'associate membership' could become open door for closer relations with other countries
European Parliament president Roberta Metsola spoke about the commission’s proposal of an “associate membership” for Canada on Euronews earlier this morning.
She said the new third status – different to a member state or a candidate state – could open the door for closer relations with other countries, such as Australia or New Zealand.
She said it was encouraging to see “huge” interest in Canada given the close links.
Metsola insisted the emerging partnership was not just in response to US president Donald Trump’s ever-more assertive positions on trade, and that “it has always been a real friendship.”
“We are not talking about this as against anyone or any country in particular, but when friends come to us and say, let’s do more, then we will be the first open to open the door,” she said.
The EP president also insisted there was no reason for retaliation from the US.
French president calls party leaders for crisis talks on Middle East, Ukraine, energy market
Meanwhile, we are getting some interesting lines from Paris that the French president, Emmanuel Macron, convened the chiefs of the different political parties to discuss the crises in the Middle East and Ukraine and their consequences on the energy market.
The meeting will be held on Friday morning at 10:30am local time on Thursday (that’s 9:30am UK) and military and intelligence officers will share the information they have provided to Macron, his office said in a statement.
Ask your questions: Q&A on Germany, Merz, state elections and what's next
Just a reminder that our Berlin correspondent Deborah Cole will be joining us later this morning to answer your questions on Germany and Merz.
Our comments section is open – post your questions and Deborah will answer them after 11am this morning.
Germany's Merz faces tricky state election in Berlin, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania this weekend
Back on Germany, AFP warns that two German state elections Sunday could deal a double blow to embattled chancellor Friedrich Merz, two weeks after his party suffered a stunning defeat at the hands of the far-right AfD.
Tight races for power – each with their own unique electoral dynamics – are expected in the city-state of Berlin and the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
The far-right Alternative for Germany is expected to make strong gains in both, a fortnight after it trounced Merz’s centre-right CDU by a margin of almost 44 to 17 percent in the ex-communist eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, AFP said.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Merz’s party is an onlooker to the main battle between the SPD of popular state premier Manuela Schwesig and the AfD.
While the AfD was polling at 37 percent against the SPD’s 35 in the latest INSA survey, Merz’s CDU, at just seven percent, may drop dangerously close to the five-per cent hurdle needed to stay in the state parliament.
In Berlin, the ruling CDU is running a neck-and-neck race against the far-left Die Linke, which is popular with many young people and promises drastic steps to solve a dire housing crisis.
The AfD is meanwhile expected also to do well in Berlin, although it is set to remain shut out of power in both states because all other main parties have agreed on a “firewall” of non-cooperation with it.
EU has 'never been as attractive as it is today,' enlargement commissioner says
Europe has “never been as attractive as it is today”, as demonstrated by plans for Canada to become an “associate member” of the EU, EU’s enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos.
“When I speak about the attractiveness, I don’t mean only becoming or not becoming a member. It is wanting to work with us stronger or in any other ways we haven’t explored yet, like Canada,” Kos said in comments quoted by AFP, expressing “regret” but “respect” for Icelanders’ recent decision to reject the resumption of EU membership negotiations.
Nato leader warns of ‘most dangerous and complex security environment in a generation’
Defence and security editor
Meanwhile, Nato’s secretary general said the alliance needs “more UK and more Europe” to deal with the most dangerous security environment faced by the west in a generation.
Speaking on a visit to the UK, Mark Rutte praised Britain for promising to increase defence spending in line with US demands after a meeting prime minister Andy Burnham – but argued that the military and financial effort must continue into the future.
“It is essential that your armed forces continue to provide the hard power Nato needs,” Rutte said in a speech to a specialist audience at Ditchley Park, a wartime retreat used by Winston Churchill in Oxfordshire.
It was a plea for the UK to make progress towards an alliance-wide target demanded by Donald Trump of spending 3.5% of GDP by 2035, about £30bn in real terms, money that has to be found from extra taxation, borrowing or reducing other spending.
Britain has so far only budgeted to increase defence spending to 2.7% of GDP by the end of the next decade. Short-term financial pressures have meant that the army has been told to stop non-essential training by the end of the year.
Chancellor John Healey resigned as defence secretary from Keir Starmer’s government in June because the former prime minister would not commit to 3% by 2030, arguing that it would require too great a step up in the next decade.
But Healey refused to recommit to the interim target when he was appointed to the Treasury by Burnham a month later, raising questions that the new government was backloading spending increases until after the next election.
Rutte said that he had discussed Britain’s “Nato commitments” when he had met Burnham at a science business park in Oxford earlier on Wednesday, without offering any details, in the first one-on-one meeting between the two.
'Not up to the US to choose political and geopolitical direction of the Europeans,' French minister says
Back to Trump’s threats over the proposed “associate membership” for Canada overnight, France’s Europe minister Benjamin Haddad said in response that the US has no power to veto EU’s geopolitical choices.
“It is not up to the United States – or anyone else – to choose the political and geopolitical direction of the Europeans. Once again, we have a relationship with Canada, and we are fully entitled to seek to deepen it,” Haddad said in an interview on Public Senat TV channel, reported by Reuters.
Updated
Ask your questions: Q&A on Germany, Merz, state elections and what's next
Our Berlin correspondent Deborah Cole will be joining us later this morning to answer your questions on Germany’s embattled chancellor Friedrich Merz as he braces for two more tricky state elections this weekend.
Our comments section is now open below – post your questions and Deborah will answer them after 11am this morning.
Earlier this week, Merz cancelled his planned visit at the UN general assembly in New York next week, saying he needed to be in Berlin. It’s never a good sign when a political leader feels he needs to do that.
in Toronto
There are also lots of reactions from Canada.
Roland Paris, the director of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa and a foreign affairs adviser to the former Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, said the term “associate member” has taken too much focus and “doesn’t really matter” in the long term.
“My hunch is that von der Leyen was hoping to rally supporters of much closer cooperation with Canada by using that label. In the end, what I expect is that we’re going to see a collection of agreements rather than membership in any institutional sense,” he said.
Carney’s decision to formalise close ties with Europe however prompted outrage from Conservatives at home.
Pierre Poilievre, the Tory leader, posted on social media that he feared Canadians “struggling to pay their rent” would have to pay more taxes “to fund the European Union’s heavy bureaucracy”.
“The welder from Welland didn’t elect a Eurocrat to regulate our steel. The farmer from Saskatchewan and the fisher from the Atlantic provinces didn’t choose a Brussels food regulator who has never seen our prairies or our coasts,” he wrote. “We will NEVER be the 51st American state. And we will NEVER be the 28th state of the European Union.”
Another, Jamil Jivani, posted that Conservatives “will NEVER support Mark Carney’s Liberal plan to have Canada join the hopelessly run, over-regulated, and self-destructive EU”.
Paris said no Canadian leaders “would be interested in formal EU membership if it involves subordinating Canadian law and regulatory structures” to Europe.
“I don’t think that’s on the table right now. There has long been a bipartisan push in Canada to deepen trade connections between Canada and Europe,” he said. “We’re now seeing now is a logical extension of those trade discussions into other areas.”
in Brussels
The 27-member EU has never had an associate membership category, although it has close ties with Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, allowing deep economic integration with these countries, who follow many EU rules.
It remains to be seen what associate membership means, including for Canada’s relationship with the EU single market. When the UK was negotiating its departure from the bloc and post-Brexit relationship, EU officials repeatedly said there was no status that enabled a foreign country to be half in and half out of the single market.
The phrase itself took EU insiders by surprise since von der Leyen had not used the term when she briefed senior EU diplomats ahead of her speech last Friday.
One EU diplomat said member states were “generally very supportive of ambition” in the EU-Canada relationship, but had been slightly worried in recent weeks that von der Leyen was overpromising on Canada.
“‘Associate membership’ sounds like a nice headline but in reality 10 member states have still not ratified Ceta,” the person said, referring to the EU-Canada trade agreement that was agreed 10 years ago.
A second EU diplomat described associate membership as “an empty phrase”.
Martin Leng at the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics thinktank said a world in flux was “pushing the EU towards far greater flexibility in its relations with third states”.
He said von der Leyen’s speech, with its focus on different sectoral areas of cooperation “points to the ambition and strategic breadth of the associate membership which the parties have in mind but also suggests that, in reality, Canada’s ‘membership’ may consist of ‘plugging in’ to existing programmes and frameworks, such as the European Defence Agency, rather than joining the union in any traditional sense”.
Morning opening: Trump threatens Europe, again
US president Donald Trump has threatened the European Union with “serious tariffs” and a cut to trade after the bloc proposed to make Canada its first ever associate member, calling the idea “laughable”.
Suggesting the move was a “hostile act”, the US president told reporters he could put “very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe”. He added: “If it’s a good intention, that’s fine. If it’s a bad intention, we’ll put very heavy tariffs on Europe.”
European Commision president Ursula von der Leyen insisted yesterday that “this is not a partnership against anyone else, but for our common strength,” and deputy chief spokesperson Olof Gill repeated this line this morning in response to Trump’s overnight threats.
Canadian prime minister Mark Carney – fresh from watching Everton’s Carabao Cup win over Wolverhampton Wanderers in Liverpool – will address the European parliament late morning. Let’s see if he has anything to say on this.
Separately, our attention is increasingly turning to Germany, where embattled chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to join the campaign trail today in Berlin ahead of this weekend’s two state elections that just could determine his political future.
Powerful German state leaders from his party have rallied behind the chancellor as speculation builds that his days in office may be numbered, and he cancelled his trip to the UN general assembly next week.
Our Berlin correspondent Deborah Cole will be joining us just after 11am to answer your questions about Merz’s future, the two state elections, and what’s next for Germany. You can post your questions to her below the line from 9am.
Lots for us to cover today.
It’s Thursday, 17 September 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
