President-elect Donald Trump's promise to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants could profoundly impact the U.S. economy, potentially cutting as much as 6.8% of national GDP, a new report showed.
Although undocumented workers make up a small portion of the total U.S. workforce, they are essential in sectors like construction and agriculture, where the highest shares of labor without a residence permit are found (13.7% and 12.7%, respectively).
Industries like plastering, roofing, and agriculture are also heavily dependent on immigrant labor, according to a report from the American Immigration Council compiled by Axios. Hospitality comes in third place, with a share of 7.1%.
A mass deportation operation – Trump has promised to expel all of the U.S.'s 11 million undocumented immigrants - would cost an estimated $315 billion and could lead to labor shortages in these industries, the report added.
Deportations could result in a GDP loss ranging from $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion, comparable to the economic downturn during the Great Recession, the American Immigration Council estimates.
Beyond the financial toll, the deportations would have a significant human impact. Approximately 4 million mixed-status families could be separated, affecting millions of U.S. citizens with undocumented relatives. The incomes of these families could decrease by nearly 63% or about $51,000 annually.
Trump's deportation plan would involve using military resources (he has said he is ready to declare a national emergency), obscure laws, and law enforcement to target individuals who entered the U.S. within the past two years. The upcoming President has also pledged to expand a controversial travel ban targeting certain majority-Muslim countries.
Fast-track deportations, which apply only to recent border crossers, would be expanded. Trump has also vowed to curb legal immigration and limit asylum access.
In response to the crackdown, Trump has appointed several immigration hardliners to his cabinet and other top posts, like Tom Homan, former ICE Director, as his "border czar" to oversee the deportation effort. Homan, a strong supporter of Trump's immigration policies, previously led ICE under both the Obama and Trump administrations.
According to Pew Research Center survey conducted in August 2024, three-quarters of voters say undocumented immigrants fill jobs citizens don't want, while a lower share (61%) say the same of legal immigrants.
