As Donald Trump prepares to take office for a second term, migration experts warn that his renewed hardline stance on immigration could inadvertently benefit organized crime. By further restricting already limited legal pathways, experts say, Trump's policies will push more migrants toward human traffickers and smugglers—many of whom are connected to criminal networks.
"Organized crime is the biggest winner," said Martha Bárcena, former Mexican ambassador to the U.S., that people-smuggling profits now rival drug trafficking revenues. Annual revenues from the human-smuggling business are estimated to range between $4 billion and $12 billion. Migrant smuggling now ranks alongside drugs and extortion as a top income stream for crime groups across Mexico, Central, and South America, with around 80% of undocumented migrants relying on smugglers to navigate dangerous routes to the U.S.
