As Donald Trump prepares to take office for a second term, migration experts warn that his renewed hardline stance on immigration could inadvertently benefit organized crime. By further restricting already limited legal pathways, experts say, Trump's policies will push more migrants toward human traffickers and smugglers—many of whom are connected to criminal networks.
"Organized crime is the biggest winner," said Martha Bárcena, former Mexican ambassador to the U.S., that people-smuggling profits now rival drug trafficking revenues. Annual revenues from the human-smuggling business are estimated to range between $4 billion and $12 billion. Migrant smuggling now ranks alongside drugs and extortion as a top income stream for crime groups across Mexico, Central, and South America, with around 80% of undocumented migrants relying on smugglers to navigate dangerous routes to the U.S.
Trump's re-election has created new urgency for migrants' journeys northward. Despite President Joe Biden's efforts to streamline border processes, such as through the CBP One app, many now fear that Trump's pledge to end the program will close off their last legal avenues. The app allowed asylum seekers to schedule appointments online, reducing the pressure on overcrowded border shelters and enabling families to wait legally. Now, however, some migrants are considering alternative, riskier options.
Bárbara Rodríguez, a 33-year-old Venezuelan who fled after facing political threats, sold her home and left her children with her mother to seek safety in the U.S. She hoped to secure an asylum appointment through CBP One but now feels the clock ticking. "Although I've already been kidnapped on this journey, I may have to turn to a trafficker to reach my goal," told Rodríguez to AP.
For those stranded along the border, the lack of legal options increases their vulnerability. Human rights advocates warn that stricter U.S. policies will worsen conditions in migrant camps and encourage desperation-driven decisions. In Mexico, civil society organizations and shelter directors report a lack of government support in preparing for mass deportations.
"Mexico must recognize that it will become a migrant retention zone," said Carlos Pérez Ricart, an international relations professor at CIDE, a Mexican public research center. Rafael Velásquez García, head of the International Rescue Committee in Mexico, told AP that civil society has borne most of the humanitarian response. "If Trump follows through on deportations," he said, "we aren't ready for the scale of impact."
Though Trump's rhetoric has been harsh on immigration, many migrants, including those already en route to the U.S., doens't halt migration plans. The U.N. International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates the number of international migrants is steadily rising, with around 281 million people now displaced globally, or 3.6% of the global population. The IOM also warns that when regular migration pathways are restricted, migrants often turn to more dangerous, irregular channels.
In Latin America, for instance, while migration desire has dropped slightly from the peak of 34% in 2021 and 2022, it remains high at 28% — a sharp increase from 18% in 2011. The recent dip is largely because fewer people in countries like Mexico, Brazil, and Venezuela are looking to leave. However, in Ecuador, Honduras, and the Dominican Republic, nearly half of adults still express a desire to migrate, according to a Gallup's report, based on interviews with nearly 146,000 people across 142 countries in 2023.
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