To carry out his plan of mass deportations, the upcoming U.S. president, Donald Trump, may need to strike a deal with one of his archenemies: the Venezuelan regime. Expanding deportations may depend on securing cooperation from Nicolás Maduro's government, which currently refuses to accept deportees from the U.S., experts on U.S.-Latin American relations warn.
An estimated 270,000 Venezuelans live in the U.S. without authorization, the Pew Research Center report. But Ryan Berg, who directs the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, says Trump's administration might explore ways to bring Maduro to the table, according to Axios.
"We may end up seeing some kind of arrangement with [Maduro] if it means the ability to deport more people, for Venezuela to accept deportee flights," Berg told Axios. He explained that Trump could initially apply pressure through sanctions, similar to tactics used in his first term, to set the stage for negotiations.
Analysts believe a "transactional approach" could shape Trump's strategy in dealing with Maduro, combining pressure with incentives to secure Venezuela's cooperation. Trump has described Maduro as a dictator but has also, in past privately remarks, shown a certain admiration for the Venezuelan leader's strong man image.
This contradiction was highlighted by former Trump advisors John Bolton and Olivia Troye, who recall that Trump referred to Maduro as a "strong man" while at the same time condemning his regime. "I heard him talk about Maduro, he supported Maduro. And I was confused in those meetings because I was thinking: here we are saying 'freedom for Venezuela,' saying all these things, and here is the president affirming that Maduro is strong", Troye, who was a member of "Republicans for Harris", said.
Maduro, meanwhile, has hinted at wanting a "fresh start" with the U.S., a sentiment that, according to Berg, could appeal to Trump's reputation as a dealmaker and create an unusual opening for an agreement.
"There could be a new beginning in relations between the United States and Venezuela", Maduro remarked in a televised statement. Acknowledging tensions between him and Trump while the latter was in office, Maduro cited moments of goodwill, such as his reaction to Trump's alleged assassination attempts.
Amid these political calculations, conditions within Venezuela continue to drive citizens out of the country. Following Venezuela's recent July 28 presidential election, which Maduro claims to have won without providing evidence, arrests and crackdowns have prompted more Venezuelans to consider emigrating, adding further complexity to U.S.-Venezuela migration discussions.
Venezuela and the U.S. have maintained a tumultuous relationship over past years, with the former imposing several sanctions on the latter over authoritarian practices. A recent investigation by WIRED revealed a secret Trump-era attempt to unseat Maduro from the presidency. From a CIA hack of Venezuela's military payroll system, to insider fights for spy agency resources, the report provides details at how the Trump administration internally placed Venezuela among its international priorities.
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