The Trump administration is planning to forge ahead this week with a move aimed at extending the arms embargo on Iran waged by the U.N. Security Council. Otherwise, the sanctions would be set to expire in October. His move is likely to fail, since it lacks the backing of key countries with the power to veto the initiative, chiefly Russia and China. But that hasn’t deterred Washington, which has declared that, should its resolution fail, it would trigger the “snapback” mechanism embedded within the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The snapback mechanism is intended to automatically restore the U.N. sanctions on Iran that existed prior to 2015 in case of violations. For those who wish to see the JCPOA’s limits on the Iranian nuclear program sustained, the U.S. move is a bad idea. Here’s why.
For one, China and Russia are not on board. They would likely veto such a resolution. The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Kelly Craft, has acknowledged this fact, stating last week that the United States had little hope it could bring Russia and China around. The two countries would likely benefit should the arms embargo expire, since they would be key candidates to supply Iran with new arms and weapons systems. Moscow and Beijing have long-standing relationships with Tehran that include joint military initiatives and technological transfer. In late 2019, amid rising tensions between the United States and the Islamic Republic, China, Iran, and Russia held joint military drills in the Persian Gulf. More generally, neither country is in a rush to renew sanctions on Iran. In early July, Tehran announced that it was negotiating a 25-year strategic partnership with Beijing, which (if finalized and implemented) would include massive Chinese long-term investment of up to $400 billion. Similarly, the Iranians and the Russians are also developing an arrangement that would include the extension of an existing agreement facilitating the Russian transfer of weapons and other goods to Iran for years to come.
