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The Conversation
The Conversation
Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Trump marginally ahead of Harris in US national polls, but Harris improves from Biden’s polls

Kamala Harris Joe Biden Donald Trump FiveThirtyEight Vice President United States

The United States election will be held on November 5. It’s been a week since President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential contest and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris. No other Democrat is contesting the Democratic nomination, so Harris will be the nominee.

FiveThirtyEight does not yet have an aggregate of polls for Harris against Republican nominee Donald Trump. Individual national polls usually have Trump ahead by one or two points. Trump led Biden by 3.2 points nationally in the final FiveThirtyEight aggregate.

Harris does better in polls where third party candidates are included. In a Siena poll for The New York Times, Trump led Harris by one head to head, but Harris led by one with other candidates. In a poll for The Wall Street Journal, Trump led by two head to head, but Harris by one with others.

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