President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb Iran is rattling global oil markets, threatening to reignite inflation—and according to Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Office, it could cost Republicans their Senate majority and send the national debt into overdrive.
The firm’s investment strategist and head of U.S. policy, Monica Guerra, published a detailed analysis Thursday warning about the obvious: The incumbent’s party tends to lose seats in midterm elections, and this particular conflict has triggered one of the most consequential energy-supply shocks in recent memory. The implications stretch from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path all the way to November’s midterm ballot box.
