The American people are being smothered by public opinion polls. Every day there seems to be some new poll expected to give precious insight into the presidential horse race that the news media is so obsessed with. As I try to decipher what these polls mean, I often find myself muttering, “Will someone please save me from this troublesome priest?”
In the aggregate, the polls now show that Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump nationally in the popular vote. However, she and Trump are basically tied in the key battleground states. Focus groups and other data also show a very close race. This is because the American people are politically unsophisticated and are easily manipulated to believe things that are not true. Democracy, by design, is messy and the politically ill-informed have the same number of votes (one) as the politically savvy and engaged.
Contributing to the confusion is how the mainstream news media’s unhealthy obsession with polling has created a type of tunnel vision and myopia where other lenses — that would likely provide better insights — for understanding the Age of Trump and the larger democracy crisis have been mostly ignored. The Washington Post's Jen Rubin recently summarized "five major media fails":
1. Ignoring Trump's mental decline (until the last few weeks of the election). 2. Excess focus on meaningless polls. 3. Failure to engage historians and psychiatrists to provide context for Trump's fascism and narcissism 4. Fixation on more details from Harris, demanding none from Trump 5. Consistent negative/inaccurate portrayal of the economy 6. Fueling Trump’s constant lies by asking Harris and others to respond.
In a recent essay at The American Prospect, Rick Perlstein echoes Rubin: “Even as the resources devoted to every other kind of journalism atrophied, poll-based political culture has overwhelmed us, crowding out all other ways of thinking about public life….The Washington Post’s polling director once said, 'There’s something addictive about polls and poll numbers.' He’s right. When we refer to 'political junkies,' polls are pretty much the junk.”
There is also the empirical fact — a very inconvenient one for the news media and the political consultants and polling firms — that presidential public opinion polls have been wrong for many decades.
As a rule, I have almost no use for “the vibes” to which many in the news media default. But I cannot deny that the 2024 election, to this point feels eerily similar to 2016, when the news media and pundits, with relatively few exceptions, incorrectly predicted that Hillary Clinton would defeat Trump. (I was among the exceptions.) It is a cliché, but nonetheless also a truth, that the only thing certain about the 2024 election is uncertainty. That observation is very little comfort when the stakes are so high.
In an attempt to make better sense of this unprecedented and truly historic election, where we are as a nation, and what may happen next, I recently spoke to a range of experts.
Katherine Stewart is the author of “The Power Worshippers: Inside the Dangerous Rise of Religious Nationalism."
If Harris wins the election, we will be able to say, “Democracy prevailed and at least we have a further lease on the American experiment.” But if Trump wins, it will be clear that the U.S. is really moving toward an autocratic, cronyistic kleptocracy that will impoverish and weaken us as a nation. That will be bad news not just for four years but for some time to come. This election isn’t just about a set of policy preferences or issues where reasonable people can disagree. The facts are out there and the tragedy is that a large portion of the American electorate has been so propagandized and manipulated.
Have events with Trump and the election played out as I expected? Yes and no.
Part of me has always hoped that the American people would simply reject, out of good sense and common decency, the candidacy of a criminal who has attempted a coup. So, at some level, that will always surprise me. But at another level, am I surprised that Christian nationalists are completely unwilling to give up on the man they say was appointed by God? Am I surprised at their apparent immunity to evidence or correction? Afraid not. I was brought up to believe that America is a special country, and it is special because it is a democracy, which rests on the ideals, at least, of equality and justice. And part of me can’t accept that a psychologically unfit liar and criminal, who has demonstrated contempt for our form of government and for a majority of our citizens, should be so successful. I don’t think there’s an easy way to make yourself feel good about that.
I saw a phrase by Robert Reich that I think captures a certain mood, which is: “I am nauseously optimistic” about the upcoming weeks and the election. So, I am hopeful that enough voters will understand the stakes to come out and vote Harris to victory. However, given that so many American voters will come out in favor of criminal autocracy, it’s kind of nauseating to realize that it is so close.
If Harris wins, a further important question will be whether Democrats take Congress. If they fail, we will see the kind of divided government and sabotaging that we saw during much of Biden’s presidency. If the Democrats are fortunate enough to gain a majority in Congress, we will see significant forward movement on key policy priorities — on the economy, on climate and renewable energy, on healthcare and other areas. I also think the Republican Party will likely descend into a form of civil war because the MAGA folks are not prepared to relinquish their hold over the party. Holding onto power is Trump’s last, best hope of staying out of jail. And at this point, most of the GOP has been thoroughly compromised. Kudos to Liz Cheney, but she will never be the leader of the Republican Party.
If Trump wins? We saw in the first term a preview: chaos, incompetence, cronyism. The one difference is that Project 2025 is real and those people will quickly seek to take over federal agencies. We have had previews of that, too, where MAGA-aligned extremists moved into government positions and the consequence was amped-up politicization and incompetence. If Trump wins, I also think he will mobilize the government to go after his political enemies. We will be moving swiftly toward a corrupt and autocratic political system. Trump is open to many forms of bribery, which will impact our foreign and trade policy. Right-wing media will be a propaganda arm of the government and some sectors of the media will fall in line, as they will want to curry favor and hold onto their sources.
The bigger consequences will be down the road. Among others, we’ll see no advance on energy or environmental issues, we’ll see significant economic damage for the middle class, further losses of rights for women, further degradation of voting rights and a dramatic loss of respect for the U.S. on the international stage.
Dr. Gary Slutkin is a distinguished epidemiologist, formerly with the World Health Organization (WHO), where he founded the Intervention Unit, which designed innovations in epidemic control. Dr. Slutkin is credited with discovering the scientific basis for diagnosing and managing violence as a contagious disease and is the founder of Cure Violence Global, rated as the #9 NGO in the world and as the #1 NGO for reducing violence.
I am a physician who works on epidemics in the U.S. and abroad. From this, I have 15 years of experience living or working in dictatorships. In these countries, you can’t speak or act freely and don’t want to live there. There are always threats. Life is fear. People fear the government, their neighbors and even their family and friends. Businesses and the press can be taken away. People become suddenly imprisoned or disappear.
I feel the U.S. 2024 election is the most important thing in the world now. And I can see that we’re not doing enough to prevent a disaster. Trump becoming president would be like a severely lethal hurricane raging across the whole country continuously. With JD Vance around as a possible successor to Trump, this feels more ominous. I dread the mischief every day, including expectations that some red states will refuse to certify the election results, and the Supreme Court giving Trump the election without hesitation, making him above the law. I feel a dread of many people not thinking for themselves anymore and of the violence including the potential “bloody” deportations.
Events so far have played out as I expected. The amount of ruthlessness, organization, and preparation of the MAGA movement, and the alarming level of experience they have around them in propaganda, coups and work with foreign governments is a grave threat. I have been following it closely and I understand it — in terms of how violent and authoritarian movements are built and of disease. However, I do have hope that Vice President Harris will win the election thanks to the votes of especially of young people, women, men who like women and truly want a better life and of every thinking and patriotic American.
I understand MAGA as an epidemic disease, infecting many through what I call “brain flaws.” It is not their fault. There are brain pathways for copying and following others — in the cortex, dopamine system, and pain centers, to motivate conformity and violence. This is a movement of violence. Violence is a disease, and specifically, a contagious disease. The disease spreads through these brain processes. The MAGA movement is a dangerous and lethal syndrome of what I describe as “Authoritarian Violence Disorder.” Donald Trump is a massive superspreader. The contagion and the moral disengagement it causes provokes cruelty and obedience. This is accelerated by the effects of “constant-lies.” Streams of lies are not just lies to be fact-checked, but an accelerant that impacts people’s brains, causing moral disengagement, allowing people to abandon their own decision-making and obey.
In the next few weeks, I expect more ruthlessness, depravity, cruelty, and threats from Trump and the most attached MAGA inner group. In all likelihood, there are October surprises planned by some of the main actors working on Trump’s behalf. Russia and the MAGA-attached propaganda and psyops professionals may accelerate the threatening and sometimes deadly mischief. The press to their shame, may not waver much from the “obedience in advance” we are seeing — although some may now make the important and historic last stand needed. Vice President Harris must continue with her message that she is here to help people — everyone — all Americans, not just one side but all sides. This is honest and sincere.
If Vice President Harris wins there is hope for sure. There will be violence, as it has already been stirred up by Trump, but she will work hard to reunite us. We can then all do what we can to reduce the divisions in this country. We must also hold people accountable for the crimes they committed, because of this disease, thought in service to Trump, as part of returning our society to a state of normalcy We must also take on the challenges that disinformation presents to our mental and societal stability. Ultimately, we need responsible leadership which Kamala Harris and Tim Walz will provide.
If Trump wins, we will have chaos in all aspects of life, even worse than before. Most notably there will be more state violence, violence from private militia groups and other violence including mass deportations and promised detention or concentration camps. This violent effort on his part could expand to include other persons and groups in which hate, and division are already being directed — and others. Our economy as well as our health and personal well-being could deteriorate beyond what many Americans are willing to imagine if Trump is allowed to have power. We can’t allow this to happen.
Jason Van Tatenhove served as the national media director for the Oath Keepers. He documented his experiences with the Oath Keepers in his book "The Perils of Extremism: How I Left the Oath Keepers and Why We Should be Concerned about a Future Civil War."
For the first time in a while, I actually feel hope again. This emotion has been a rarity for me recently. But I sense a shift — an energy, a renewal — stemming from youth-driven positivity and a reembracing of democratic norms. There’s a spark, and I see it catching, spreading hope across our divided nation. It's as if we’re witnessing a collective desire to reclaim what was lost and build something new in its place.
In many ways, the election has played out as I expected. The Trump campaign has continued down the expected path, filled with divisive rhetoric and attempts to undermine the electoral process. What I didn’t anticipate, however, was the sudden emergence of Harris as a viable contender. Her presence promises that our generation has a tangible stake in its own future. As the ones who will be living through the impacts of decisions made today, we must have leadership that understands and represents our perspectives.
I’ve come to see this election as more than just a political contest — it’s an opportunity to recalibrate our democracy. Once we get this democracy thing back on track, I hope we can start focusing on the pressing issues that lie beyond the ballot box, like climate change. Our system is far from perfect, but it’s the best platform we have to tackle the challenges ahead. There’s a clear demand for a return to normalcy and I believe the average American voter shares this sentiment.
We’re not out of the woods yet. Even if Harris wins by a significant margin, Trump has made it clear he won’t accept the results. This is a profoundly concerning scenario, but one we can overcome by learning from the lessons of Jan. 6. We need to start planning now — establishing safeguards to ensure the integrity of the vote count and preparing to minimize any potential political violence.
Matthew Sheffield is the founder of Flux, a progressive podcasting platform. A former right-wing activist and Salon writer, he is also the host of Theory of Change, a podcast about larger trends in politics, media and culture.
Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket has proven to be a good decision for the party, however, it’s starting to seem that she has kept several of the same faulty strategies that his senior staff had put in place and as a result, she has not pulled away from Trump the way that she could.
In state and local elections, targeting the small sliver of persuadable voters willing to go for either party is the way to go, but in the social media age, the better play is to target the 80 million American adults who didn’t vote in 2020. This is what Donald Trump is doing very well by reaching out to podcasters, YouTubers and local radio hosts on a daily basis. Harris is going to have to think much bigger about finding potential voters and getting them engaged. Protecting abortion rights can be motivating for some people, but it should not be the only argument that’s presented to a country of 330 million people.
The election is going to hinge on what people think of Harris, not what they think of Donald Trump. For his entire political career, the majority of Americans have disliked Trump. Harris needs to give people reasons to vote for her beyond just to stop Trump. And she needs to let people see her where they are at. I don’t see a need for her to be constantly parading before national mainstream media figures, but she should be doing many interviews with lifestyle vloggers and center-left TikTokers. At this point, candidates should value message saturation over message control. People need to hear from her directly in conjunction with sources they trust.
Trump, meanwhile, is likely to keep up his same strategy, trying to suck up all the media attention so that the low-propensity voters don’t hear what Harris has to say. He literally does not care what people are saying about him, it’s that they are not quoting his opponent. This has been the Trump campaign strategy since the 2016 Republican primaries.
There is a strong possibility Trump could win. I think his strategy of tapping that large pool of mostly apolitical people is likely to save him in several of the swing states. The downside of this strategy is that many of these irregular voters are not likely to want to vote for any Republican other than Trump, so it’s quite possible that Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives while losing the Senate by a very small margin.
There is still a good chance that Harris could win by a small margin. In those circumstances, Trump is certain to resurrect his same post-2020 strategy of promoting conspiracy theories about “voter fraud,” which he is already has been doing. Since Trump is not currently serving as president, I think these complaints would be less likely to provoke the large-scale violence of Jan. 6, but they are very likely to provoke more "lone wolf" violence perpetrated by individuals and small groups.
