Signs of strife in the holiday sector were laid bare on Thursday when operator On The Beach suspended its profit forecast and warned that bookings have plummeted for Turkey, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt.
The company, one of the largest online package holiday providers alongside TUI, Thomas Cook and easyJet, has been hit by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, with many customers reluctant to fly if they can avoid it.
On The Beach said in a stock market announcement: “Whilst the group has limited exposure to destinations in the Middle East, it has experienced a significant slowdown in demand following the onset of conflict in the region, particularly to destinations such as Turkey, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt. The timing of when the conflict will end and the shape of recovery in demand to these destinations are unknown.”
It was previously telling investors to expect profit for the year of between £39m and £43m, but has put that guidance on hold.
The shares tumbled 27p – 14 per cent – to 166p, which leaves the business valued at £240m. The stock is down 28 per cent this year.
City analysts say On The Beach is a well-run business. Katie Cousins at broker Shore Capital said: “The Group has made significant improvements to its platform capabilities and offering, and the strategy appears well-funded by cash. However, the current travel landscape and consumer confidence are clouded by the Middle East conflict.”
Resorts offered by the company include Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh on Egypt’s Red Sea coast, Antalya and Marmaris in Turkey and Abu Dhabi and Dubai in the United Arab Emirates.
Air routes between Asia and Europe are being suspended apace, while the prices of flights that remain in place are soaring.
Bloomberg reports that 46,000 flights have been cancelled since the conflict began in late February, based on figures from data firm Cirium.
That could create a real problem for many with Easter, a busy travel time, just weeks away.
The World Travel & Tourism Council estimates that the conflict is costing the tourism sector $600m (£445m) per day in lost international visitor spending,
The Iran crisis has seen 10 per cent of all flights globally cancelled, the biggest shock to the aviation sector since Covid.
Richard Hunter of investment firm ii.com said: “While most economic and company data have yet to reflect the impact of the conflict, share prices most certainly have been forward-looking estimates. On the Beach is an example of this caution, perhaps unsurprisingly suspending its current profit guidance.
“Among the worst hit sectors so far have been those in the travel sector. Airlines and cruise operators have performed poorly, not only because of the higher price of fuel, but equally because this conflict may crimp consumer propensity to spend on overseas travel at a potentially dangerous time. The reaction of the On the Beach share price is symptomatic of the concerns which are currently overhanging the wider market, which will continue to multiply the longer the conflict lasts.”
Easyjet shares also wobbled today, down 11p to 386p. They have tumbled 20 per cent in the past month.
Shares in BA owner IAG are down 14 per cent in the last month. That fall has come even though the group reported what analysts called “blockbuster” results just before Donald Trump launched his attack on Iran.
Ironically, it had been boosted by falling fuel costs.
However, even before the conflict, there was concern among investors that holiday companies and airlines would be hurt by rising unemployment and lower consumer confidence.
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