Thousands of Canberrans head to the polls on Saturday to decide who will lead the nation’s capital.
Labor has been the ruling party for the past 23 years – an impressive feat given the ACT has only had self-governance since 1989.
The chief minister, Andrew Barr, has been in the top job since 2014 after the now finance minister, Katy Gallagher, left the post for Capital Hill.
But this election, the Canberra Liberals are hoping their leader, Elizabeth Lee, will be the one to turn the tide in the bush capital.
The party hopes to reverse its recent electoral misfortunes, including the loss of the territory’s sole federal Liberal representative, Zed Seselja, at the last election to David Pocock.
The ACT government’s composition is an interesting space to watch. It is the only Labor-Greens coalition in the country, with Shane Rattenbury, the ACT Greens leader, appointed as attorney general and climate minister and two other Greens ministers as part of Labor’s cabinet.
Let’s catch you up to speed on the rest.
Who might run the ACT government next?
Starting with the obvious: the polls could decide Barr remains chief minister for another four years.
The 51-year-old was first elected to the ACT assembly in 2006. He intends to serve out another term and with it promises to push forward with key policies such as the extension of Canberra’s light rail system.
Labor’s share of the vote has declined each election since 2016. In 2020, the party got more than 100,000 votes from Canberrans, or 37.8% of the vote, but recorded a -0.6% swing.
The party’s main opposition, the Canberra Liberals, has fared worse. In 2016, it faced a -2.2% swing with 89,632 votes. Four years later, the party’s vote increased marginally to 91,047 votes but represented 33.8% of the territory, resulting in a -2.9% swing.
Still, with the help of independents and after 23 years of Labor, Lee hopes it will be enough to turn Canberra blue.
“If the Canberra Liberals are in a position to be able to form minority government, then the result will be that the Canberra community has clearly voted for a change,” Lee told Guardian Australia. “I would ask that the independents take that very seriously.”
The Greens are also in the running, but their path to leadership is more challenging.
At the 2020 election the Liberals won nine seats in the 25-member parliament, with Labor (10) and the Greens (six seats, a record result) combining to form a coalition government – their third in a row in a parliament that nearly always produces minority governments.
For Rattenbury to overtake Barr, the minor party would have to pick up a number of seats and rely on either Labor or the Liberals to help form government.
How do ACT elections work?
These elections work a little differently to other jurisdictions.
The territory uses a unicameral system, meaning there is one house. Sitting within it are 25 members, representing the five electorates: Brindabella, Ginninderra, Kurrajong, Murrumbidgee and Yerrabi.
There are no local councils in the ACT, so the Legislative Assembly deals with a range of services, from garbage disposal to running public hospitals.
Elections are run on the Hare-Clark system: voters number their preferred candidates from one onwards, with candidates needing to hit a quota of first-preference votes. Once a candidate reaches that quota, their surplus votes are distributed according to a voter’s preferences until another candidate meets the quota.
If seats still remain after this distribution, the candidate with the lowest number of votes in each round is excluded and the preferences are transferred to remaining candidates until all five positions are filled.
What are each party’s policies?
The major divergence between the ACT’s major parties is clear this election – the future development of Canberra’s light rail system.
Barr has committed to full completion of stage 2B of the city’s light rail system, extending the existing line past the central CBD to Parliament House – initial works on the route are already under construction – and into its growing south-western hub.
The construction of a track further into southern suburbs – Canberra is broadly split into north and south by Lake Burley Griffin – won’t be begin until at least 2028 and will require federal government funding commitments.
The Canberra Liberals agree to stage 2A - extending the line south from the city to Commonwealth Park on the lake’s northern shore. However, the opposition believes the stage further to Parliament House and Woden in the territory’s south-west is a waste of money and are pledging to dump the plan.
Another issue for Canberrans is the ageing sports stadium, a 15-minute drive north of the city in the suburb of Bruce. While Labor has proposed to build a new stadium near the original site, the Liberals are in favour of building a new one closer to the city centre on the lake.
Beyond infrastructure, Lee has said she won’t wind back some of the policies that have earned the ACT its reputation as Australia’s most progressive jurisdiction.
Some of those policies include voluntary assisted dying, and the territory running on 100% renewable energy.
On the other hand, the Greens are pitching “a higher level of ambition” on progressive policies. For example, the party’s territory branch proposes a ban on gambling ads, accelerating the rollout of the light rail and for the government to build and buy 10,000 new public homes over the next 10 years.
Apart from the major parties, who else is running in Canberra?
Labor, Liberals and the Greens aren’t the only parties in town. At this ACT election, a number of new and some familiar faces are having a crack.
Thomas Emerson, David Pocock’s former adviser and the son of former federal Labor minister Craig Emerson, has started a new group of independents, aptly called Independents for Canberra.
The group pledges to make Canberra a fairer society, looking at affordable and sustainable housing, and integrity in politics.
There’s also the First Nation party, led by Ngambri-Kamberri custodian, Paul Girrawah House. It offers policies to help ACT reach its closing the gap targets.
Familiar minor parties in other elections, including the Animal Justice party, Family First and Labour DLP, are also running candidates in electorates.
This article was updated on 19 October 2024 to correctly reflect the parties’ stadium and light rail policies.
