Traders Give Google a 70% Chance of Having the Best AI Model. Most People Can’t Even Use It Yet.

According to prediction market traders, Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google is the clear favorite to own the best artificial intelligence (AI) model at the end of October. On Polymarket, as of Oct. 12, Google held about a 70% chance ahead of Anthropic at 23%, Meta Platforms (META) at 3.5%, and OpenAI at below 1%. Rival platform Kalshi showed a nearly identical picture.

The shift happened fast. Until late September, Anthropic was the overwhelming favorite on Polymarket with odds near 90%. That flipped almost overnight on Sept. 30, when Google unveiled Gemini 4 Argon, its first major new model in months. Google said Argon beat rival models from OpenAI and Anthropic on 13 of 19 benchmarks. It also took the top spot on Arena’s text leaderboard, a popular public ranking.