Global energy markets may take as many as four months to rebalance, with gasoline and diesel inventories still constrained by shipping worries in the Strait of Hormuz, TotalEnergies SE Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné said on Saturday.
"There is a lack of oil products, the lack of petrol and diesel," Pouyanné said during a panel discussion at Rencontres Economiques conference in Aix-en-Provence. "The stocks are quite low, and the price of petrol and diesel is still today at an equivalent of 85 or $90 a barrel."
His warning comes as broader market pressures intensify, with geopolitical risks and shipping constraints still shaping global price dynamics. Markets have struggled to stabilize as shipping disruptions and fragile US–Iran diplomacy pressure prices and sentiment.
But with tight inventories and slow tanker recovery, producers are dumping stockpiled crude at heavy discounts, driving benchmarks to multi‑month lows. Analysts now warn the market could tip into a glut heading into next year.
"Middle Eastern producers have built up such large inventories that they are now desperate to sell their oil," Pouyanné said. "At the same time, there are difficulties getting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz because many shipowners are still unwilling to take the risk. As a result, producers are heavily discounting their crude, and prices are collapsing."
Crude oil benchmarks have dropped to their lowest levels since before the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran began in late February. Brent crude futures rose 0.19% to $71.94 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged up 0.13% to $68.78.
Kuwaiti crude prices dropped by $3.32 to $68.61 per barrel in Thursday’s trading, compared with $71.98 per barrel the day before, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) said on Friday.
Hormuz Commercial Traffic Steady
Despite earlier turmoil, shipping volumes have begun to stabilize under US‑assisted transits, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) said on Friday. Last week, the interim US–Iran truce came under strain after attacks on US allies and vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
"Iranian intent and capability to conduct intentional disruption or attack persists," JMIC said. "Mariners should expect continued naval presence, congestion along transit routes, and more intense IRGC hailing to support monitoring and flow control."
Around 34 commodity vessels have crossed the strait daily on average since Monday, Bloomberg reported. Between June 30 and July 1, 65 ships crossed along the Omani side, with 59 of them being supported by the US, data from the JMIC show.
"The consequences of a blockade are ultimately quite complex," Pouyanné said. "Some rather unexpected and striking developments are taking place at the moment."
Investors Watching Diplomacy
Diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran continue to shape investor sentiment, with markets looking to negotiations to stabilize Hormuz flows.
Expectations for a full reopening of the strategic waterway have been supported by the ongoing talks, according to Citi analysts. The US–Iran negotiations remain delicate but are still moving forward, with disputes over Hormuz tolls and governance continuing to be a major sticking point.
Investors are balancing optimism over the ongoing US-Iran negotiations with rising Middle East oil supplies and persistent concerns about global oil demand. Traders are watching whether tanker flows continue to normalize next week and whether diplomatic momentum holds.
Pouyanné said he does not expect hostilities to resume, reinforcing market hopes for a gradual normalization of flows.
