The Conservatives are set to lose their seat in a key battleground constituency near Bristol, according to data by YouGov. Tory Jack Lopresti has been the MP for Filton and Bradley Stoke since the seat's creation in 2010, but the research company says that would all change if a general election were held today (May 29.)
YouGov published its latest MRP model on Saturday (May 28) which found that if an election were held today, the Tories would hold onto just three of 88 battleground seats across England and Wales. Filton and Bradley Stoke is one of those seats, which is estimated to have a +7 Labour lead in the next election.
YouGov's model predicts that from the 88 constituencies which the Tories either one from Labour in 2019, or currently hold with a majority of less than 15pts over Labour, just three would remain in Conservative hands. They are Ashfield, Bassetlaw, and Dudley North.
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West Country constituencies such as Stroud, which has been held by Tory MP Siobhan Baillie since 2019, would also lose their Tory seats, predicts YouGov. Elsewhere, Boris Johnson’s seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip would likely fall into Labour hands, with current results suggesting a 5pt Labour lead in the constituency.
YouGov says: "Looking at ‘Blue Wall’ areas where Labour are principle the challengers to the Conservatives, there is yet more pain for the governing party. Every seat in London and the South under the battleground definition falls to Keir Starmer’s party: from Iain Duncan-Smith’s constituency of Chingford and Woodford Green, to Steve Baker’s seat in Wycombe, to the marginal bellwether of Southampton Itchen, Labour sweep the board.
"Every Conservative seat in Wales under our battleground definition would be lost – including one to Plaid Cymru, who are currently picking up Ynys Mon. The other eight include the former Labour heartlands of Wrexham, Bridgend, and Delyn."
But YouGov admits: "There is however a lot of uncertainty around these figures. The next election is of course not scheduled for another two years, and the boundaries on which it will be fought are currently planned to change.
"What’s more, no fewer than 25 battleground constituencies are currently forecasted to be won by a margin of less than five percentage points – well inside what we would consider a ‘margin of error’ for an exercise of this nature."
It comes after a poll by YouGov found the Tories trailed Labour by six points in Filton and Bradley Stoke back in 2021. At the last election Jack Lopresti won 48.9 per cent of the vote, compared to Labour candidate Mhairi Threlfall's 38.4 per cent.
Last year BristolLive found some voters in the South Gloucestershire constituency turned on Boris Johnson as a result of the Partygate scandal. Other people said they are changing the way they vote due to Brexit and the government's handling of Covid-19.
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