Tories have plenty of weak spots – and dislike years that end in four

Harold Wilson shakes hands over a car roof in 1964. He scraped home in 1964 and was returned to Downing Street in 1974. Photograph: Manchester Daily Express/SSPL/Getty

Labour governments have come to power five times in the past century and three of those occasions have come in years that end in a four: 1924, 1964 and 1974. If Rishi Sunak does call an election during the course of 2024, history suggests he will lose.

But not by all that much. In 1924, Ramsay MacDonald formed a minority government after the December 1923 election. Harold Wilson scraped home with a slender overall majority in October 1964 and returned to Downing Street after the inconclusive result in February 1974.