The Tory party is facing a wipe out of gains it made in the North East at the last general election according to latest opinion polls.
In 2019 it won nine of 29 seats in the region dealing a devastating blow to Labour in its heartland.
Four were classed as 'red wall' seats as they historically backed Labour and at a 2021 by-election they won another, Hartlepool.
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Yet today with the Tories in turmoil and beleaguered Prime Minister Boris Johnson facing growing calls to quit, the North East political map could turn red again
A 'poll of polls' by 'Britain Elects', aggregating all opinion polls, showed that Tory support has fallen by 9% since the 2019 election while Labour's has gone up 7%.
This represents an 8% swing which if repeated at the next general election would see 24 Labour MPs returned in North East seats and just five Tories - almost back to where things were in 2017 when Labour won 26 and the Tories three seats.
It would mean Red Wall seats like North West Durham, Blyth Valley and Sedgefield going Labour again as well as Darlington, Redcar and Stockton South.
Of those remaining, only Jill Mortimer in Hartlepool and Dehenna Davison in Bishop Auckland, would retain their 'Red Wall' seats, and Ms Davison only by a margin of just 0.9%.
The other three are Ann-Marie Trevelyan in Berwick, Guy Opperman in Hexham and Simon Clarke representing Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland.
However a separate 'exclusive poll' commissioned by Channel 4 News and also published today showed that support for the Tories in Red Wall seats has collapsed since December to the extent that even Bishop Auckland and Hartlepool could be lost to Labour.
Conducted by @JLPartnersPolls, it puts support for Labour at 48% and for the Tories at 37%.
The poll of 518 people in red wall seats in the North, Midlands and Wales suggests if an election took place now the Tories would lose all but three of those seats, with just Dudley North, Bassetlaw and Great Grimsby staying Conservative.
Dr Alistair Clark, reader in politics at Newcastle University, said the Tories should be "very worried" about the figures, a natural result of a "drip, drip, drip" of damaging stories in recent weeks like reports of Downing Street lockdown parties and the sleaze row over Owen Paterson breaking lobbying rules.
Dr Clark said: "The public has been very clear over recent weeks that issues around standards in public life and how politicians conduct themselves is something they care deeply about. These stories have cut through.
"This is something that really undermines the trust and faith of those who gave their vote (to the Tories) in 2019. You could argue these votes were only loaned provisionally to see what would become of it."
The feeling is growing that trust may have been misplaced, he said.
Dr Clark said to attempt to rectify the situation at a local level North East MPs would have to work even harder in their constituencies.
At a national level he said a change of tone was needed. "I can't see that happening without a change of leadership," he said.
However just getting rid of Boris Johnson won't solve everything, said Dr Clark. Many Cabinet members became embroiled in the ill-judged defence of Paterson as well as backing Johnson over the Downing Street parties.
"The Cabinet is caught up in this as well," said Dr Clark. As a result, while Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss are regularly mentioned as possible replacement leaders, he said it could see a Cabinet outsider or someone who has kept "suspiciously quiet " of late as new leader.
"Among those suspiciously quiet has been Michael Gove but also Jeremy Hunt, the former leadership challenger."
He suspected that if Johnson does go there will be a 'coronation' in which one candidate is agreed upon to take over to avoid the turmoil of a leadership contest involving several candidates.
As for Labour, he said the result of their poll bump hasn't just been a case of sitting back and watching Boris Johnson's Government self destruct.
"One of the things Keir Starmer set out from the start of his leadership of the Labour party in 2020 was to show competence, and he did that for a reason. Competence in its leaders is very important to voters.
"Very slowly and quietly he has built up the thought they were a competent party and in recent weeks and months he has begun to set out more and more what his Labour party stands for. There is still a lot of work to be done there to put more meat on the bone."
Meanwhile his colleague and fellow political expert at Newcastle University, Dr Martin Farr said: "The 2019 general election has the potential to be both historic and also transient, and in no region more than the North East.
"Seats went Conservative that had always been Labour, which was a shock, but also a reflection – a culmination – of much longer term trends of declining Labour affiliation from voters, which the 2016 referendum and its aftermath amplified.
"However, many of those seats were won with very small majorities, by very clear promises (Brexit and ‘levelling-up’ in particular), and through the direct personal appeal of Boris Johnson.
"Those highly variable conditions mean that it’s very far from certain that Red Wall seats will remain Conservative in 2023 (when the next election’s likely to be)."
The Britain Elects poll of polls says there's been an 8% swing in support to Labour since 2019. (Labour support +7, and Tory support -9%).
Table shows: Constituency and MP; winning percentage margin 2019; percentage swing needed for Lab to win
North West Durham (Richard Holden); 2.4%; 1.3% (LAB gain)
Darlington (Peter Gibson) ; 8.4%; 4.3% (LAB gain)
Blyth Valley (Ian Levy); 1.8%; 1% (LAB gain)
Sedgefield (Paul Howell); 10.9%; 5.5% (LAB gain)
Redcar (Jacob Young) ; 8.7%; 4.4% (LAB gain)
Stockton South (Matt Vickers); 9.6%; 4.9% (LAB gain)
Bishop Auckland (Dehenna Davison); 17.8%; 9% (TORY hold)
Berwick (Anne-Marie Trevelyan); 35.3%; 17.7% (TORY hold)
Hexham (Guy Opperman); 22.9%; 13.5% (TORY hold)
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland (Simon Clarke); 24.3%; 12.2% (TORY hold)
* Jill Mortimer won Hartlepool at the 2021 by-election from Labour by a huge 23.2% which would require an 11.7% swing for Labour to win back.
