Top economist Mohamed El-Erian sees inflation getting 'sticky' at 4%—and a growing chorus sees the dawn of a new world in investing

Mohamed Aly El-Erian, former chief economic advisor for Allianz SE, gestures as he speaks during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy, on Friday, Sept. 6, 2019. (Credit: Giulio Napolitano/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

After raging to multiple four-decade highs in 2022, inflation has fallen steadily over the past six months. But now, an increasing number of economists and business leaders are worried that the trend won’t last. “I think inflation is going to get sticky in midyear at around 4%,” Mohamed El-Erian, the president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, told Bloomberg on Friday.

The economist has been warning about the possibility of persistent inflation since August of last year, but he’s not alone anymore. Christian Ulbrich, CEO of JLL, a real estate and investment management firm, told the Financial Times this week that at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, it was a common view among his executive peers that 4% inflation is the new 2% inflation.