The Tennessee Titans have no shortage of big decisions to make this offseason, with perhaps the biggest of the bunch coming at quarterback.
While we grew a new level of appreciation for Ryan Tannehill as we watched the Titans struggle even worse when he wasn’t under center, that doesn’t erase the reality that the veteran signal-caller has failed to show he can put the Titans over the top to a Super Bowl.
As a result, Tennessee might be looking to move on from Tannehill, especially now that there’s a new general manager in town.
However, finding an upgrade to replace him will not be an easy task, as the options out there are limited and most are lateral moves at best. Of course, Tennessee could also draft their quarterback of the future, but that’s no guarantee, either.
In our offseason preview at quarterback, we’ll take a look at the Titans’ current situation, their potential out-of-house options, and then we’ll make a prediction for what will happen at the position this offseason.
Who's under contract?
Ryan Tannehill: $36.6 million cap hit
Malik Willis: $1.17 million cap hit
If the Titans do decide to stick with Tannehill, they should rework his deal or extend him in order to lower his cap hit and give the team more flexibility right away.
Ideally, the Titans leave themselves an out in 2024 if they extend him. Doing so would also give Tennessee an insurance policy for next season if they can’t find their quarterback of the future.
The play could be as simple as just converting base salary to signing bonus money and spreading it out over his two void years in the current deal.
If the Titans decide to part ways with Tannehill, either through trade or cut, it would prove costly, as he’d account for a dead-cap hit of $18.8 million, and then Tennessee would have to pay his replacement, whoever that might be.
Of course, the Titans could save more cash with a post-June 1 designation, but then the team wouldn’t be able to use that money until that date, which is well after free agency has played out.
Who's a pending free agent?
QB Joshua Dobbs: $1.035 million cap hit in 2022
Dobbs was a pleasant surprise for the Titans in his two starts, but that did not come without some collateral damage.
The veteran signal-caller stepped into a starting role just a little over a week after landing with the team thanks to an injury to Ryan Tannehill. He was a clear upgrade over Malik Willis and gave the Titans some hope they could avoid the disastrous collapse they ended up succumbing to.
Unfortunately for Willis, Dobbs’ ability to elevate the offense a bit with the same cast of characters the rookie couldn’t was no doubt a blow to his stock, which was already hurt after Willis struggled mightily in three starts.
Dobbs is someone I believe the Titans will bring back in 2023 to compete for the backup job against Willis, who desperately needs to win the role against whoever he faces if he wants to keep hope for his future alive.
Potential upgrades
Aaron Rodgers (trade)
Lamar Jackson (trade)
One possible upgrade out there at quarterback is with Green Bay Packers signal-caller, Aaron Rodgers, who might be on the trade market this offseason.
While that sounds great in theory, the Titans would likely have to part with at least one first-round pick, and quite possibly multiple for a guy who may only play one more year.
As if that wasn’t enough to scare us away, Rodgers commands a hefty salary, although that could be re-worked upon a deal happening. Still, the Titans would be paying Tannehill’s big dead-cap hit on top of Rodgers’ salary.
Lamar Jackson is another potential option, as he could hit the trade market this offseason, but good luck trying to get the Baltimore Ravens to deal him to Nashville, even if he becomes available.
The Titans would likely have to give up even more than they would for Rodgers, and then would have to sign Jackson to a massive contract afterwards that could exceed $200 million in guaranteed money.
I just don’t see any of that happening, especially with all the competition that figures to be out there for both quarterbacks.
Lateral moves
Derek Carr (trade)
Jimmy Garoppolo (free agent)
Geno Smith (free agent)
Daniel Jones (free agent)
Trey Lance (trade)
These quarterbacks are the rest of the best of the bunch in terms of signal-callers who could be available this offseason. However, I think you can knock Geno and Jones off the list, as they’re likely to return to their teams.
You can probably knock Lance off, also, as Tom Brady’s retirement likely threw a wrench in the possibility that Tennessee trades for the former No. 2 overall pick, who could prove to be a downgrade from Tannehill anyway.
Carr will certainly be available, but as of right now he has to be traded. It is possible he’s cut by Feb. 15, though. Jimmy G will also be available, as he hits free agency this offseason.
The problem with all four of these guys is that none of them are a clear upgrade and are really lateral moves at best.
It would make no sense for Tennessee to go in this direction, as it would leave the team paying for Tannehill’s dead-cap hit on top of whatever they pay the new guy.
I can live with that if the move is for a Jackson or Rodgers, but not for quarterbacks who don’t present an upgrade.
Will the Titans draft a quarterback?
After taking a swing on Malik Willis in the third round and it not panning out so far, I don’t think Tennessee will go for another one in the middle to late rounds, barring a guy they love taking a major slide.
However, there is a new general manager in town, so that approach could very well be on the table.
If the Titans do go after a quarterback, it’ll likely come via a trade up in the first round, but even then Tennessee isn’t in an ideal spot with the No. 11 overall pick.
The Titans will have a tough time putting together better trade packages than the QB-needy teams with higher draft slots, like the Indianapolis Colts (No. 4 overall) and Houston Texans (No. 2 overall), for example.
You also have teams like the Las Vegas Raiders (No. 7), Carolina Panthers (No. 9) and the New Orleans Saints (No. 10) who could be looking for a quarterback.
Add the Atlanta Falcons (No. 8) in that mix, also, if they aren’t sold on Desmond Ridder.
If the Titans feel strongly about C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young and have an opportunity to move up and draft one of them, then by all means go for it. However, such a scenario is very difficult to envision.
What Titans will do
The most likely scenario is the most boring one: the Titans stick with Tannehill for one more season.
With an upgrade impossible to obtain, the Titans run it back with Tannehill for one more year and give him the help necessary to have a chance to compete, something Jon Robinson failed miserably at last season.
The Titans extend Tannehill to help lower his cap hit, but do so without a long-term commitment beyond 2023. This way, Tennessee has the veteran to fall back on for yet another year if they can’t get the future at quarterback figured out in the mean time.
As far as Willis is concerned, I’m not ready to give up on him yet, but I’m not expecting anything more than a backup role for the Liberty product in 2023.
The best Willis can hope for is to beat out Dobbs or whoever the Titans bring in to compete with him for the backup job, and then he goes on to show he’s ready to take the reins in 2023, however that comes.
