The Tennessee Titans are set to face the Jacksonville Jaguars later on tonight in a massive AFC South showdown that will crown a division winner by evening’s end.
The Titans are on the verge of completing one of the more embarrassing collapses in franchise history after losing their last six contests.
A seventh consecutive loss would not only officially end the Titans’ disappointing season, but it would also result in the franchise’s worse losing streak since they dropped 10 straight during their 2-14 campaign in 2014.
The Jaguars, on the other hand, have been rolling as of late, winning four straight and six of their last eight games.
Truthfully, not many are giving the Titans a realistic chance in this one for a plethora of reasons, including everything we just stated. Nonetheless, that’s often when the Titans have historically played their best under head coach Mike Vrabel.
If the Titans are going to pull off the massive prime-time upset and steal the division away from a hated rival in the process, they’ll likely have to accomplish the following three keys to victory.
Go out swinging with Derrick Henry
Back in 2019, the Titans faced a similar win-and-in scenario in the final week of the season. Tennessee ultimately gave the ball to Derrick Henry a total of 32 times, emphatically winning its way into the playoffs.
This momentum-altering performance set up Henry’s eventual legendary postseason run where he carried the team to the AFC Championship game.
The very next season, the team faced a similar scenario once again, albeit for the division championship instead of a wild card berth. King Henry went on to rush for 250 yards on 34 carries.
One year later, the Titans found themselves in another massive season finale, this time with home-field advantage on the line for the entire playoffs.
With Henry sidelined due to a foot injury, the team was forced to rely on the tandem of D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard. The two of them combined for over 120 yards rushing on 30 carries.
In case you don’t see the pattern here, when a Vrabel-led Titans team has had to fight for something at the end of the year, they usually go out swinging with their most consistent punch.
More often than not, it’s led to some successful outings whenever Tennessee commits to at least 30 rush attempts this late in the season.
Since 2019, the Titans are 5-0 in meaningful season finales and/or playoff games in which they run the ball for a minimum of 30 times, and 0-3 in games where they don’t eclipse at least 30 carries as a team.
A similar approach to this contest should give the Titans their best chance this time around, especially considering the obvious limitations surrounding the passing game.
Also, despite the struggles around him, Henry has still somehow amassed over 1,800 yards from scrimmage this season (1,429 rushing, 379 receiving).
.@KingHenry_2 eyes another 1,500-yard, 15-TD season for #Titans. pic.twitter.com/k7XkTtPo3C
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) January 5, 2023
Now that the Titans’ season is on the line, if they want their best chance at spoiling the Jaguars’ postseason plans, it would be wise for them to get the ball to their best player and live or die on the back of No. 22.
Complement Henry with an efficient passing attack
No one is realistically expecting Joshua Dobbs to light up the Jaguars in his second-career start on Saturday evening.
However, the veteran quarterback proved last week that he’s at least capable of operating this offense enough to adequately move the ball through the air.
More importantly, he made a valiant effort to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers.
Treylon Burks, Robert Woods, and Chigoziem Okonkwo combined for 149 total yards and one touchdown on 13 touches between the three of them in Week 17.
Arguably the most impressive feat about this is the fact they accomplished that without Henry in the backfield drawing most of the attention.
Dobbs and his arsenal of weapons will have that luxury this time around, and they must take advantage of it.
Burks and Okonkwo, in particular, are the two playmakers this offense has to get going if the Titans want to give themselves a puncher’s chance, not only on Saturday but in the tournament as well, should they make it there.
#Titans OC Todd Downing says it’s paramount this week trying to get the ball to rookies Chig Okonkwo and Treylon Burks.
— Teresa Walker (@TeresaMWalker) January 4, 2023
Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing hinted earlier in the week that they will prioritize the two rookies this evening, so we shall see how true that is later on tonight.
If the Titans can get a balanced offensive attack, they should have a realistic shot of leaving Jacksonville with their third consecutive division championship.
Get after Trevor Lawrence early and often
In order for the Titans to pull off the massive road upset, they’re going to have to make Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence uncomfortable on Saturday evening.
The last time these two teams played, the Titans were without Denico Autry, while Jeffery Simmons battled an ankle injury that kept him from practicing for weeks.
This time around, Autry is healthy and Simmons is coming off some much-needed rest for that hobbled ankle. The Titans are going to need the two of them to be at their very best if this team is going to have any chance.
If Simmons and Autry wreak havoc the way they’re capable of doing when healthy, this team will give can beat anybody going forward.
Simmons is the one that could truly benefit from last weekend’s rest.
From Weeks 1-8, Simmons accounted for:
- Five games with a PFF grade of at least 72
- Three games with a PFF grade of at least 85
- Two games with a PFF grade of at least 92
- 31 pressures
- Six sacks
Meanwhile, from Weeks 9-16, the Mississippi State product only accumulated:
- One game with a PFF grade of at least 72
- 19 pressures
- Two sacks
NOTE: Simmons re-aggravated his ankle injury in Week 9.
The superstar defender is just one of many Titans players that have simply been surviving each game instead of thriving in them.
#Titans DT Jeffery Simmons this season:
– 21 pressures (2nd among DTs)
– 3.5 sacks (2nd among DTs)
– 15 hurries (t-1st among DTs)
– 90.0 PFF gradeA really good player who deserves more shine. pic.twitter.com/8sSMRGd1xT
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 12, 2022
Last week’s rest will at least give Simmons and Co. a chance at returning to their fresh and dominant form.
Fortunately for Tennessee, the Jaguars’ offensive line is a banged-up group entering this game.
Guard Ben Bartch has been out for most of the season, and left tackle Cam Robinson was placed on IR this week. Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff is questionable for Saturday due to ankle and abdomen issues, also.
Not having Scherff would be another massive loss for a group that has collectively excelled all year long. Jacksonville has only allowed 1.7 sacks per game this season (T-5th).
For the Titans to head back to Nashville with the massive road upset, they’ll likely need to eclipse that average on Saturday night. Otherwise, it could be a long evening for a banged-up Titans defense that’s trying to slow down a red-hot Jaguars offense.
