Have Donald Trump’s hard talk and the arrival of a strike-ready flotilla finally made Tehran blink? It certainly seemed so by Monday evening, when Iran said it was willing to talk. A week of trading threats turned to strong indications that Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy, and Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s minister for foreign affairs, were readying to meet in Istanbul on Friday. In this week’s big story, Ashifa Kassam and Andrew Roth chart how momentum to war slowed and fears of a wider regional conflict eased, albeit marginally.
The background to Trump’s war of words against Tehran was the huge protests that rocked Iran last month, until they were brutally repressed by the regime. Analysts suggest a fragile domestic security situation prompted the Iranian government’s softening towards US demands. Our diplomatic editor and longtime Iran watcher, Patrick Wintour, explains that while the streets are now quiet, a shift in the balance of power between the people and the government has emboldened domestic demands for a full investigation of the killing and imprisonment of protesters.
It may seem that the US holds all the cards to force a deal, but Dan Sabbagh’s analysis of American military deployments in the region suggests that if Washington and Tehran can’t find common ground, a repeat of Venezuela – where regime change was effected easily last month – will be hard against Iran, and in a far more unstable region.
