The government may be alive, but it might as well be considered dead if we take into consideration all the buzz about its prospects in the next election.
People are pondering: Will strategic voting work? If so, for which camp? What is more likely to become the deciding factor for voters -- the infighting in the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) or mutual attacks between the opposition Pheu Thai and Move Forward?
The questions are intensely deliberated as political pundits try to make sense of the new political landscape. Some of them, especially those behind the Pheu Thai camp, have floated the possibility that the party which grabbed the most seats in the last election will win in a landslide.
But the reality does not seem that way.
The days of a single party's rule and strong executive arm, last seen during the rise of the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai Party and the Thaksin Shinawatra government, are not likely to return.
On the contrary, the next election will see further fragmentation of political parties, platforms and ideologies. The Thaksin-no Thaksin dichotomy that has gripped elections for over a decade is giving way to the more pungent Prayut-No Prayut choice.
More centrist options have also emerged. There is an idea of political pragmatism as advanced by the Kla Party led by former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij.
Meanwhile, the Sang Anakot Thai, or Building the Future of Thailand, headed by former key leaders of PPRP Uttama Savanayana and Sonthirat Sontijirawong is suggesting an end to political divisions to refocus on economic development.
The ruling PPRP seems to be dividing itself as well. Its former secretary-general Thamanat Prompow left with 20 MPs to join the Thai Economic Party due to bad blood with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Although Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon insists that the new party will continue to support Gen Prayut, Capt Thamanat appears to be keeping his options open.
Yesterday, the PM's aide Seksakol Atthawong also resigned from the PPRP to set up a new party called Ruam Thai Sang Chart, or United Thais Building the Nation, ostensibly to support Gen Prayut as prime minister.
It is not yet clear whether the splintering will end up weakening the ruling PPRP but boost the chance of Gen Prayut returning for a second term, or undermine the Prayut camp altogether.
More banners mean the political bases could be more diluted. Voters could become more divided over what matters most. The increasing diversification, or in some cases variations on the same theme, will likely result in the next government being another coalition.
The million-dollar question is who or which parties will end up in the winning cohort?
For Gen Prayut, fatigue is his major threat. The PM has been in power for almost eight years. Even among his supporters, this is long enough for weariness to set in.
The past few years of the government fighting the pandemic and ensuing economic doldrums definitely work against him. Worse, from now until March next year when he is due to complete his term there seems to be no more good news.
The popular Half-Half co-payment scheme has been renewed four times, with the latest round seeing the subsidy reduced from 1,500 baht to 1,200 baht.
The restoration of the Thai-Saudi Arabian relations is not likely to stir up excitement on the campaign trail.
The PPRP will be a less powerful vehicle for Gen Prayut to return to power as well. The party has been at the core of the coalition for years but none of its major campaign promises materialised.
For the opposition Pheu Thai, it's understandable the party has been whipping up the possibility of a landslide election victory. But considering the situation where most small- and medium-sized parties remain allied with the Prayut government, nothing short of a clear and decided triumph would let it form a government.
The challenge, however, seems to be the constant bickering between the party and its fellow opposition Move Forward. Instead of capitalising on the infighting within the ruling party which has weakened the Prayut government, the two main opposition parties are busy attacking each other.
The belligerence only adds to the public perception that neither one of them is electable of becoming the government, and that the opposition is generally incapable of working together to articulate the people's agenda.
But as the excitement builds for a fresh election, one thing is clear. Time is not on the Prayut government's side.
