DALLAS — Filling the holes in your hockey roster is a tough business. You roll the dice on a 39-year-old Sergei Gonchar or even a 30-year-old Martin Hanzal only to find out these players are at the finish line. But then, once in awhile, you spend your money on a 35-year-old Joe Pavelski and cross your fingers.
Three years since Stars GM Jim Nill made the decision of Pavelski over Mats Zuccarello while the San Jose Sharks were going with Evander Kane over Pavelski, you can declare Dallas the winner. Not that Zuccarello isn’t a fine player for Minnesota, but Pavelski is the only Dallas player in Las Vegas for this weekend’s All-Star Game. When you’re doing that at 37, you’re defying the odds, even after a splendid 16-year career.
Pavelski made three All-Star teams with the Sharks (all in his 30s) but could have been viewed as nearing the end in 2019 when he was a minus player for the first time in his career. The Stars didn’t want to sacrifice the draft pick it would cost to keep Zuccarello, who had enjoyed a fine run in their two playoff rounds that spring, along with the extra year he was seeking.
So Dallas turned to the man who, along with Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, was the driving force of the Sharks for more than a decade.
“His game has never really changed,” Nill said. “Some guys have that hockey sense. When players lose a little speed, you say he knows where to stand. Well, Joe knows where to stand.”
Despite a scoreless three games going into the All-Star break, Pavelski stands as one of the hottest players in the league. Having scored 27 points in his last 17 games, Pavelski leads the Stars in scoring, in power-play goals and assists. The good news for the Stars is he doesn’t seem to be aging while Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson, playing on a line with Pavelski since training camp, are performing beyond their experience level.
For years the Stars’ top line featured captain Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, mostly playing with Alexander Radulov the last few seasons. While those three have enjoyed recent moments of success, it’s the Pavelski line that is No. 1 and keeping this team’s playoff chances afloat.
“They hit it off coming right out of training camp and it’s been a top five line in this league," Nill said.
Actually, some analytical measures have the Stars’ best line ranked No. 2 right behind Boston’s Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak. While Robertson’s 87 points in his first 89 NHL games give him a top 10 start in the land of Crosbys and Ovechkins over the last 20 years, it’s Pavelski’s last two seasons that produced All-Star notice.
Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Pavelski has 99 points in 99 games. That figure is enhanced by scoring 48 points in 43 games this season. In his 13 seasons with San Jose, Pavelski was never a point-a-game player. He came close, finishing with 78 and 79 points in a pair of 82-game seasons in 2014 and 2016. So when Nill says Pavelski’s game has never changed, we might have to call him out on that.
He’s gotten better.
The bad news for Stars fans is that this might be the end of the story. It’s never a great thing when your best player is turning 38 next summer. Beyond that, the Stars are on the outside of the playoffs looking in despite a career year from Pavelski.
The analytics site MoneyPuck.com rates the Stars with a 37% chance of making the playoffs this spring, a 13.5% chance of escaping the first round. The number for their returning to the Stanley Cup Final, where the Stars inexplicably advanced just two years ago, is almost invisible.
Closing out the first half with a 4-3 loss to Calgary in which the Flames scored three times in the last six minutes? That’s the equivalent of driving for a touchdown before halftime and throwing a long pick-six. A killer.
The Stars will be busy when they return to face Nashville Wednesday. Dallas will play 39 games in 80 nights. That’s a long, hectic sprint to the finish line for a team that has been outscored by opponents this season despite a 23-18-2 record.
So what comes next? Pavelski has done his part.
“He’s a special player," Nill said. “It would be nice to find one more."
The trade deadline is March 21. That’s miles away.
If the Stars have completely lost their way, you can expect John Klingberg to be on the move. If they have found a way to hang on, perhaps improving those 37% chances just a bit, then it’s up to Nill to find that one more.
