DALLAS — Before we examine what problems lie ahead for a Cowboys’ team that suddenly has issues with all four focal points of the game — run defense, pass defense, passing attack, running game — we need to clear things up for the head coach one more time.
Been through this before. I’m sure we will go through it again, and not just with Mike McCarthy. It drives me crazy when coaches or coordinators or fans or (especially) opinion-based columnists say it because it’s one of the real misunderstandings of the decision-making process.
I’m talking about the Cowboys throwing on third-and-10 late Sunday, an incompletion that allowed Jacksonville to pocket a timeout for Trevor Lawrence and the offense — exactly what they had to have, as it turned out — for the field goal that led to overtime. The run game had failed, netting zero yards in two plays to create the third and 10. None of that matters. You have to run the ball or throw a screen or a shovel pass to CeeDee Lamb running behind the line of scrimmage — anything to practically guarantee the clock keeps running — and force the Jaguars to spend their final timeout.
Dak, of course, threw a 40-yard pass downfield to Noah Brown that fell incomplete, and you know the rest of the story.
Here’s what McCarthy said afterward.
”The decision is do you play it conservative and run the ball to take the time off or do you try to win the game? It’s a pretty simple decision. When it converts, it’s a great call. When it doesn’t, you get criticized for it.”
And that’s just not right.
Any analysis of play calls, of coaching decisions, of general manager trades and moves has to be based on the information available at the time decisions are made. You can’t wait and find out how something turns out unless you’re simply stating that “hindsight would tell us this or that." If Brown would have somehow caught that deep pass, it would have been a lucky play, not a great play call. The simple truth is that the game is almost certainly over — if you have any faith in the defense at all — if you punt with no Jacksonville timeouts remaining.
Had the Cowboys done that instead of getting cute, then the Jalen Hurts injury would be a LOT more important for Saturday’s rematch with Philadelphia. And I don’t know how someone as experienced and successful as McCarthy does not understand that.
Beyond that, with an eye toward the future, one must look at those two failed runs that got Dallas into the third-and-10 bind. Ezekiel Elliott lost three yards and then Tony Pollard gained three back. How come a team that prides itself on being a run-based team can’t deliver it when it matters?
The reality is this is not a great running team or anything close to it. Pollard pops long runs and is clearly the team’s best back. If Zeke is tougher how come it’s Pollard that’s so far ahead in yards after contact? But I wonder if Pollard is wearing down with three games to go before the playoffs. Against the Texans and Jaguars — not the greatest of run defenses — Pollard ran 29 times for 117 yards. That’s barely 4.0 per carry. That’s way below his norm and even below Zeke’s.
Elliott’s 4.1 for the season ranks ahead of just two of the top 20 rushers in the NFL — Pittsburgh’s disappointing Najee Harris and Detroit’s Jamaal Williams, who was supposed to be the backup to oft-injured D’Andre Swift.
We already know the team has issues everywhere else. Except for Philly (which spreads the ball around with Hurts running a lot), every team that has beaten Dallas has produced a 100-yard rusher — Tampa Bay’s Leonard Fournette, Green Bay’s Aaron Jones’ and Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne. The run defense at 22nd in yards per carry allowed is closer to the bottom of the league than the run offense (13th) is to the top. The pass defense now has major cornerback issues opposite Trevon Diggs and in the slot. And the occasionally efficient pass offense is derailed by Dak Prescott leading the NFL in interceptions since he returned from injury against Detroit.
But what about this running game? Does this team have any playoff hopes at all if Pollard and Elliott can’t produce about 140 yards on the ground? Does the return of Tyron Smith — even out of position at right tackle — bode well for the near future?
The 10-4 record saves Dallas from any immediate warning sirens going off. Realistically, that top wild-card seed is about locked in. If they win one game in their last three to get to 11-6, it’s hard to see the 8-5-1 Giants winning road games at Minnesota and Philadelphia to run the table and slip past the Cowboys.
So Cowboys-Bucs (if Tampa Bay can win a game or two), here we come. Will the Cowboys show up with deficiencies in all four areas or will the interceptions vanish and the running game get back up to speed? That’s what these last three weeks have been reduced to, thanks to a head coach not telling Kellen Moore to run the damn ball on third down Sunday.
