Good morning.
As the war in Gaza enters its fifth month, the push for a ceasefire has continued. Responding to Israel’s proposals, Hamas has made a far-reaching counteroffer, which includes a four and a half month truce that would see the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, guarantee the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, and require the reconstruction of the strip, among other requirements. The Palestinian militant group also added that over the course of the temporary ceasefire, negotiations must continue to ensure a permanent end to the fighting.
The US president, Joe Biden, said the requests were “a little over the top”. But the general consensus seemed to be that this was a step in the right direction. As expected, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, rejected Hamas’s terms, which he described as “delusional”, and has dismissed pressure from the US to come to a mediated truce. As combat intensifies and Israel prepares to storm Rafah, a small town bordering Egypt that is currently housing more than half of Gaza’s population, time is running low. With every passing day, the situation in Gaza becomes more untenable.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke with Bethan McKernan, the Guardian’s Jerusalem correspondent, about how close negotiations are to a ceasefire. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Pakistan | Two bomb blasts at the election offices of a political party and an independent candidate in south-west Pakistan killed at least 30 people and wounded dozens more on the eve of parliamentary elections that begin today.
Politics | The father of the murdered teenager Brianna Ghey has demanded Rishi Sunak apologise after the prime minister made a jibe at the expense of transgender people just after being told Brianna’s mother was watching him in the House of Commons.
Coronavirus | The Conservative peer Michelle Mone assured the government that she was not entitled to “any financial benefit whatsoever” from a PPE company, five months before £29m of its profits were transferred into a trust for her benefit, the Guardian can reveal.
Police | Protesters who wear masks could face arrest, up to a month in jail and a £1,000 fine under proposed measures that human rights campaigners claim are pandering to “culture war nonsense”. Demonstrators will also no longer be able to use the right to protest as a reasonable excuse if they commit public order offences such as serious disruption.
Labour | Keir Starmer will announce today that he is scaling back Labour’s £28bn green investment programme, in his biggest policy U-turn since becoming party leader.
In depth: ‘We’re still far off a meaningful deal where hostages are released and there is a real ceasefire’
Two weeks ago, Israel announced a US-backed ceasefire plan that would entail a 45-day truce and the phased release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. In its proposal, Israel ruled out a permanent ceasefire in order to retain the right to continue the war to wipe out Hamas. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said it was a “good strong proposal” and that “there is some real hope going forward”. Here’s what happened next.
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The counterproposal
After deliberating, Hamas has come back with its own proposal that includes a three-phase ceasefire, with each stage lasting 45 days. In the first phase, all Israeli women, males under the age of 19, elderly people and the sick would be released in exchange for Palestinian women and children in Israeli prisons. During the second stage, the rest of the male hostages would be released in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. This would be followed by the exchange of bodies and remains in the final phase.
The plans also include an increased flow of food and other aid, the reconstruction of Gaza, and retention of Hamas control in the strip. Hamas has said a permanent ceasefire is not required from the outset; however by the end of the ceasefire there would have to be some kind of agreement for a permanent truce before the release of the last hostages.
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Sticking points and compromise
Even though some mediators viewed the counterproposal as a positive step, Israel’s government unequivocally rejected its terms. Netanyahu reiterated his stance that “absolute victory” against Hamas was the only solution that would secure Israel. He added that it would take months more fighting before Hamas was defeated. Despite Netanyahu’s push back, Blinken has said there is “space for agreement to be reached”.
Any proposal that leaves Hamas in charge of Gaza will be deemed unacceptable by the Israeli government. “Israel has offered the leaders of Hamas to go into exile in the past, and that idea has recently been floated again, but Hamas will probably not agree to that,” says Bethan. Then there is the issue of the prisoner exchange: in November, the Palestinian prisoners who were returned to Gaza were generally women and children who had been imprisoned for misdemeanour crimes or on trumped-up charges, but Bethan explains “this time Hamas has written a long list of prisoners they want released, including hardened militants who are serving life sentences”, which is proving to be a point of contention.
Although both sides are digging their heels in, they have also indicated there is room for compromise. “The length of the ceasefire, the amount of aid and goods allowed into Gaza and the way the hostage and prisoner release mechanism would work in practice” are all areas either or both sides may be willing to move on, Bethan says.
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What’s next?
The outcome of these negotiations could not be more critical to the security of the region and the worsening of the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Pressure on Israel from the Americans to agree to a deal has increased, especially as they hope that a hostage and ceasefire deal will lead to a wider resolution in the Middle East. During the November ceasefire, Hezbollah stood down and stopped firing at Israel – whether that would happen again is unclear but there is still a chance that it could de-escalate hostilities between the Lebanese militia group and Israel. Bethan notes that it is unlikely to make much of a difference with the Houthis in Yemen, who “had their own calculations and interests in mind when they got involved and are unlikely to stand down. They would need their own separate negotiations.”
The consensus among mediators is that this is the closest Israel and Hamas have been to a ceasefire since November; Bethan, though, is not as optimistic: “We’re still really far off a meaningful deal where hostages and prisoners are released and there is a real ceasefire on the ground in Gaza.” Ramadan, a period where tensions tend to flare up in the West Bank and Jerusalem, is also fast approaching – if a truce has not been declared before mid-March, hostilities could get even worse.
However, a ceasefire deal that the Israeli government is not on board with could fling Netanyahu, who is deeply unpopular, into another political crisis. Bethan says the core problem on the Israeli side is that “no one is willing to negotiate a two-state solution … The short-termist thinking is making these negotiations near impossible. How can you plan a ceasefire if you don’t know what you want to happen in Gaza after the war is over?”
A truce based on the idea of all-out victory for Israel seems unrealistic even to its allies. While Israel can “degrade Hamas’s capabilities and make Gaza completely uninhabitable, they are not going to kill Hamas as an ideology or political force”, Bethan says.
In the coming weeks, both sides are likely to continue to blame the other for the failure to reach a truce, as the death toll continues to rise.
What else we’ve been reading
Niksen – the art of doing nothing – is the latest wellness fad, and Viv Groskop hunts down its Dutch origins to see if we could all benefit from doing a bit more nothing. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
Tired of the stigma and lack of information about menopause, six women from all over the world have shared their experience of the new phase of their life. Nimo
Scott Tobias offers up a fitting tribute to Blazing Saddles on its 50th birthday: “To Mel Brooks’s mind, the best way to confront human evil is to laugh in its face”. Toby
After announcing that an all-boy school in Sydney was going co-ed, some parents went up in arms. “As easy as it is to laugh at these grown men tearily protesting against the presence of ‘young ladies’, the Newington college saga carries a dark message: about the stock people place in the ideas and mores of the past, and the lengths they’ll go to protect them,” Elle Hunt writes. Nimo
14 top chefs serve up their favourite easy to make, affordable lunch recipes – I’m particularly drawn to James Cochrane’s “office pot noodle”. Toby
Sport
Football | A 3-1 win at Aston Villa in an FA Cup fourth-round replay extended Chelsea’s strong run of results in the domestic cup competitions this season, just as critics were getting on manager Mauricio Pochettino’s back for the team’s many dismal displays in the Premier League. Nottingham Forest also advanced in a replay – and was rewarded with a home match against Manchester United – after beating second-tier Bristol City 5-3 in a penalty shootout. The game finished 1-1 at the end of extra time.
Boxing | Tyson Fury has scotched speculation of an impending retirement as he mapped out a five-fight plan, including a couple of showdowns against British rival Anthony Joshua.
Rugby | Wales boss Warren Gatland has made seven changes to the starting lineup for Saturday’s Guinness Six Nations clash against England at Twickenham. Centre George North returns from injury for his 50th Six Nations appearances, lining up alongside Nick Tompkins in midfield. Fly-half Sam Costelow, who went off injured during the first-half of Wales’ 27-26 loss to Scotland last weekend, is replaced by Ioan Lloyd, with Tomos Williams at scrum-half.
The front pages
“Revealed: Mone told government she wouldn’t benefit from PPE deal” – that’s the Guardian’s splash this morning while the picture lead is Rishi Sunak’s trans jibe on the day Brianna Ghey’s mother visited the Commons. Of that, “Shame on you” says the Daily Mirror to the PM. “‘Putin spy infiltrated’ Britain’s intelligence” – the Times puts hooks around the first bit because these are claims made in a court case. The Daily Telegraph puts hooks around the whole lot – “‘Migration won’t save UK from debt crisis’” – because it’s an opinion, from David Miles at the Office for Budget Responsibility. “Thank you so much for all your kindness” – Prince William’s words to us, about his father’s cancer, according to the Daily Mail. The ever-hopeful Daily Express dares to dream: “Has PM opened door to amazing Boris comeback?” – apparently Rishi Sunak spoke to him “just a few months ago”. “Viagra linked to reduce risk of Alzheimer’s” reports the i and the Financial Times says “Barratt agrees £2.5bn swoop for rival Redrow in bid to weather downturn”.
Today in Focus
Why the military are the real winners of Pakistan’s election
After loudly criticising the army, Imran Khan, reported to be Pakistan’s most popular politician, has been hit with several jail sentences. Mehreen Zahra-Malik reports
Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
The search for a “rogue raccoon” on the run in Sunderland has entered its seventh week. Elusive Meeko, who normally resides at the Sunderland Training and Education Farm, has been in the wild since 18 December, when a trespasser is said to have let him loose alongside two others, Rocket and Pinch. (The latter two were quickly lured home by hotdogs.)
However Emily Colburn, who works at the farm, said Meeko was “more of a nightmare” than the two females and that “he will try and hide as best he can”.
Volunteers trying to track down Meeko are said to be “hopeful that the lure of breeding will entice the animal to return home”.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
