Liverpool will soon discover how well they have replaced Sadio Mane. Darwin Nunez is not a like-for-like match by any means but by joining the club in the same summer in which the Senegalese forward left, a degree of comparison is inevitable.
With Mohamed Salah having recently signed a new three-year contract, the future of the right side of the Reds’ attack looks settled for the time being. The immediate impact Luis Diaz has had on the opposite flank means there are no issues there either.
The future of Roberto Firmino is far less clear. He is not currently seeking a move, and neither are Liverpool looking to sell. He does only have a year remaining on his current deal, though, and rumours persist that Juventus are looking to sign the Brazilian.
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As he will soon turn 31, Firmino will inevitably need replacing before too much longer, whether the transfer rumours emanating from Italy are genuine or not. If his contract continues to tick down without an extension, the questions will become more urgent.
It was thought Takumi Minamino might have been the man for the task, and Diogo Jota undoubtedly shares some of Bobby’s strengths.
But he’s a very unusual player with a varied skillset. Renowned as the leader of the press, Firmino also ties a midfield and attack together more neatly than almost any forward around.
On perhaps the three most important statistics for a Liverpool forward, the former Hoffenheim man has been remarkably consistent. Across each of the last five Premier League campaigns, Firmino’s expected goals has always been between 0.40 and 0.46 per 90 minutes.
While his output has varied, the process has remained constant. He has been a player upon whom Jurgen Klopp has been able to rely.
Similarly, his expected assists have only ranged between 0.18 and 0.22, and his pressures have never dipped below 18.9 per 90 minutes. Add in that Firmino has always offered at least 7.8 pressures in the final third and we have the stats we need to source a potential replacement.
To do this, we will look for forwards who last season met the minimum level which Liverpool’s number nine has offered over the years in these four categories. The players won’t necessarily be perfect options, but they offer a similar level of performance, are younger than Firmino, and played at least as many league minutes as he did in 2021/22.
Matheus Cunha, Atletico Madrid
Firmino’s countryman Matheus Cunha is under contract at Atletico Madrid for another four years so may not be obtainable any time soon. The 23-year-old centre-forward certainly has the skills required for the task though.
Cunha is in the top five percent of forwards in the big leagues for pressing and was among the Bundesliga’s top 10 players in 2020/21 for shot creating actions, shots on target and carries into the penalty area.
According to Statsbomb, he is statistically similar to Jota and former Red Danny Ings. It would be a surprise if the transfer analysts at Liverpool aren’t already a little bit interested in Cunha.
Dani Gomez, Levante
Spanish under-21 international Dani Gomez has only just completed his second campaign in a top division, and only made 11 starts (though 28 appearances) along the way. The key thing to note, though, is that he improved in all four statistics we are looking at when compared to his efforts in 2020/21.
He has reached Firmino’s base level and should only improve from here. Gomez’ dribbling is a touch better too, particularly with regards to carrying the ball into the penalty box.
The only problem is that his side Levante were relegated and so he will be in the Segunda Division in Spain this season. While a lower standard, this should give Gomez an opportunity to play for a dominant side and continue his development.
Yussuf Poulsen, RB Leipzig
While his attacking figures don’t quite match Firmino’s, Yussuf Poulsen has displayed a similar level of consistency from season to season. His goals per 90 rate in the Bundesliga (0.37) is identical to the Brazilian’s in the Premier League too.
The Danish international is the one man in our list who player analysis smarterscout also identify as having been like Firmino last season. As he is in the top one percent of forwards in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain for through balls and successful pressures, the comparison is easy to understand.
At 28 years of age he is not a long-term option, but Poulsen has entered the final two years of his contract so wouldn’t break the bank. A short-term option until Cunha becomes available, perhaps?
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