The State is now possibly staring at a drought-like condition with the monsoon deficit widening. The southwest monsoon has been abysmal with overall rainfall between June and August (up to August 14) 44% deficient and the threat of drought looming large in many parts of the State. Deviating from the usual pattern of 240.2 mm rainfall in the first two weeks of August, the State has received only 25.0 mm, registering a shortfall of 90% rain in August.
Though the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted an above-normal southwest monsoon in the State ahead of the four-month-long monsoon season, despite the impending El Nino effect, the picture is not at all rosy, but alarming considering precarious water levels in reservoirs. As of August 14, the water availability in key reservoirs under the Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) stands at a mere 37% of the total storage capacity. The reservoirs have a total power generational capability of 1,537.032 million units (mu) as of Monday, whereas it was 3,438.062 mu during the corresponding period in 2022.
The latest meteorological features do not support the strengthening of the monsoon during the remaining period in August. An extended rain forecast issued by the IMD warns of below-normal rainfall till August 25. Normally, the State used to get only 13% of its seasonal average rainfall of 2,018.7 mm in September. This means even normal rainfall in September is insufficient to make up for the rain deficit and only extreme rainfall events can compensate for the shortfall, which is unlikely as per the current meteorological conditions, said a senior IMD scientist.
El Niño factor
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific are exceeding El Niño thresholds, with climate models indicating this is likely to continue at least through to early 2024. Further, although a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected in the Indian Ocean, which could lessen the impact of El Niño, the IOD is still neutral, indicating the ‘dry run’ of the monsoon in Kerala in the coming weeks as well.
According to IMD data, Kerala has witnessed deficient monsoon only 14 times since 1901, with the last one in 2016. And among the 15 El Niño years the country witnessed since 1951, only five El Niño years (1965, 1972, 1987, 2002, and 2015) affected the State. El Niño typically suppresses the rainfall on the Indian continent.
