This year's El Nino set to be strongest in more than a century, UK forecasters say

Cover image: An aerial view taken on July 30, 2026 shows a mosque and surrounding buildings in Somang village in Lebak in Indonesia's western Banten province, which was deliberately flooded to make way for the construction and filling of the Karian Dam that opened in 2023 and has now re-emerged due to the El Nino-driven drought. Indonesia believes cloud seeding can help it tackle a wildfire season that experts say is on track to be among the worst in years, driven by a strong El Nino. © Bay Ismoyo, AFP

Britain's Met Office has predicted sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will reach an "unheard-of" level of potentially more than three degrees above average, triggering severe droughts across South America and the West Pacific. Such an event would have serious knock-on effects for global food security.

This year's El Nino weather pattern will be the biggest in over a century, warming sea surface temperatures to an "unheard-of" level, Britain's national weather agency predicted Friday.

The El Nino weather pattern is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the baseline average, triggering worldwide changes in winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns, and causing warmer global temperatures overall.

Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, told the BBC that: "We are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees – that is unheard-of in modern climate records."

He called it "an unprecedented event", adding that "I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts."

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The anomalous warmth, which is "up to nearly two degrees already", will have particularly strong effects throughout the Tropics, Scaife said, "where we expect really severe droughts in places like South America, and the West Pacific".

'Long-term, persistent conditions'

Temperatures in the region are currently running about 2.6C above a rolling 30-year average, according to the Climate Brink dashboard.

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"These are not short-term weather forecasts. We're talking about really long-term, persistent conditions here. There are well-known impacts on other systems including food, food security," said Scaife, a physicist who specialises in climate modelling.

The weather pattern is also expected to cause "increased rainfall and storminess in the autumn here in the UK around November time", Scaife said.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)