What are the expectations for Derek Carr in 2023? Obviously the most important goal is for him to lead the New Orleans Saints back to the playoffs and end their two-year postseason drought, but what about his individual performance?
Let’s start by checking in on this projection from Bleacher Report’s Alex Kay, who sees Carr as a big upgrade over New Orleans’ past options at quarterback (at least since Drew Brees hung up his cleats). But it might be too little, too late for Carr:
The New Orleans Saints have their best quarterback since Drew Brees thanks to their offseason signing of Derek Carr. While Carr fell out of favor with the Las Vegas Raiders at the tail-end of a disappointing campaign last year, he could experience a resurgence in the Big Easy.
With a decent group of wideouts that includes 2022 first-round pick Chris Olave and a once-elite veteran in Michael Thomas—who is trying to prove he has something left in the tank himself—Carr could put up some surprisingly decent numbers for the Saints.
Projection: 68 percent completion rate, 3,901 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns; 13 interceptions, 30 carries, 118 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.
It would help take the edge off if Carr guides the Saints to the postseason (something, it’s worth noting, he only did once in nine years with the Raiders), but that stat line would be a major disappointment with or without a playoff berth.
An average of 229.4 passing yards per game would be the second-lowest number in Carr’s pro career. A 68% completion percentage lines up with his recent performances with someone better than Josh McDaniels calling plays, and it’s worth noting he’s only thrown 30-plus touchdown passes once (in 2015). Carr has thrown 14 interceptions in each of the last two seasons, so that’s a comparable total, too.
As has been observed at other outlets, Carr can’t just be the same guy he was with the Raiders. He needs to elevate his play and that of those around him to justify the Saints’ decision to make him the face of their franchise. If he’s just turning in more of the same that got him run out of town in Las Vegas, fans in New Orleans shouldn’t be happy. Hopefully projections like this one end up being the floor, not the ceiling, for him in 2023.
