The first stage of the war in Ukraine didn’t go according to Vladimir Putin’s plan, but it is the next four weeks that could determine how the map of Europe is changed as a result of his invasion. The incremental sanctions tightening we’ve seen in recent days will make little difference to that battle. It will also require a major increase in the supply of weapons and changes to the kinds of weapons supplied by Ukraine’s allies in Britain, the U.S. and other countries.
Military analysts and officials in the U.S. and other NATO countries are warning that the next week to 10 days will see a major intensification of Russian military operations, with resupplied Russian forces deployed in the Donbas region in an attempt to defeat Ukrainian holdouts in Mariupol, freeing Russian forces there for a pincer movement from both north and south.
However poorly Russia’s forces have performed on the battlefield so far, it now has a more realistic set of objectives. Instead of an invasion from three fronts, Russia will now have a single axis to focus on, and one where its supply lines are less vulnerable to Ukrainian attack. Russia has also taken the measure of the Ukrainian military, which it badly underestimated.
