Ty Simpson is an NFL draft version of a mirror, with every franchise seeing in him what they ultimately want reflected in the quarterbacks available this year.
Some will hold up Simpson as a potential answer at the position that is the most difficult to project on the field—someone who might need a little bit more seasoning before becoming the starter, sure, but who has all the tools capable of turning into a long-term answer.
Other teams will look at the Alabama signal-caller and see a prospect not worth a first-round pick, both because of what his ultimate ceiling is as much as it is about looking over his shoulder at what is coming with the 2027 crop of draft-eligible quarterbacks.
While there is precious little drama when it comes to the top quarterback available, presumed No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza, the group of players behind the Indiana star on draft boards is as much a riddle wrapped around an enigma as it comes for teams to decipher in recent years. At the heart of such discussions is Simpson, whose momentum has been building lately to become the second QB to hear his name called in Pittsburgh for next month’s draft.
Whether that buzz is the result of constrained supply meeting a growing need in the wake of free agency or the byproduct of a quality showing at the NFL combine causing his stock to catch up with his play depends on who you talk to around the league. Mostly, though, it’s a reflection on a player who very likely will go in the first round, even if few teams will give him that kind of actual grade once the scouting process comes to a close.
Simpson's case to be the second QB drafted
The case for Simpson isn’t hard to make, especially among a group of peers who do not exactly force separation from each other this year. The Crimson Tide quarterback is the son of a football coach who has been around the game from a young age. He’s aggressive in the pocket and can drive a lot of his intermediate throws in ways others don’t. He has top-notch footwork, and his delivery is like clockwork, which you can’t help but be impressed by the consistency from snap to snap.
While his coaches at Alabama loved him, you can also look a little deeper and see why he had to wait his turn as a former five-star recruit who wound up starting just one season.
Simpson is borderline elite at not being an elite signal-caller in some of the key areas that matter to a front office deciding to part ways with a first-round pick. His arm strength won’t wow you in person, but he can make all the throws that he’ll have to in the NFL. Simpson’s size (6' 2", 208 pounds) clears pretty much every minimum requirement, but it isn’t ideal, and that’s before factoring in his injury history. He recognizes coverages well and can adjust to pressure, but isn’t the best quarterback prospect in this class at dealing with it by any stretch. He rarely misses easy throws that you would expect a completion, but also doesn’t hit the game-breaking play at the rate you’re hoping for.
It doesn’t help any evaluation that his lone campaign as Alabama’s starter was a tale of two seasons. During the first nine games of 2025, Simpson threw for 21 touchdowns (against just one interception) and looked like he was capable of clearing the bar of being a first-rounder with room to spare this spring. The Tide bounced back from an early loss to Florida State that featured a slew of protection issues to wind up ranked as high as No. 4, thanks to their quarterback’s play and Simpson’s stretch from mid-September to mid-October against SEC competition might be as good as anyone put on tape last year–including Mendoza.
He performed as a high-level player. Then the injuries hit, making him look like a Day 2 guy.
There was a lingering lower-back issue. Elbow bursitis robbed Simpson of that extra snap on his throws, particularly in sub-par outings against Georgia in the SEC championship game. A nasty case of gastritis thinned his lower body down over the stretch run last fall, and he cracked a rib in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Rose Bowl.
It’s a credit to Simpson that he fought through all that, delivering a gutsy victory at Oklahoma in the first round of the CFP, but he clearly wasn’t the same quarterback who got scouts excited that came through Tuscaloosa, Ala., early in the year.
Simpson's tricky evaluation
As an NFL team, it’s hard to know which version of Simpson you’re going to get—not just this fall but in the long-term. That’s why it’s a tricky evaluation of the Crimson Tide signal-caller, before even trying to determine his value when he’s fully healthy in a deep draft at other positions.
Simpson earned plenty of plaudits in February when he spoke about his decision to enter the 2025 NFL draft instead of transferring to another school for a reported multi-million-dollar payday at the college level. Most scouts probably would have preferred to see him return to school so he could come close to doubling his 15 starts. However, the 23-year-old at least had a solid retort after learning under Nick Saban and Kalen DeBoer as to his preparedness for the next level.
“That’s why I went to Alabama. I told [NFL teams], that Alabama is the best place to get you prepared for the NFL. I fully believe that,” Simpson said at the combine. “Anybody who goes through there is going to be NFL-ready.”
That’s part of the calculus behind jumping into the draft this year, which can allow Simpson to state his case as the guy after Mendoza that quarterback-needy franchises need to invest in.
Beauty is always in the eye of the beholder, though, and few prospects this draft season are going to be as divisive as a quarterback who has shown flashes of what you want, but few of them before growing a handful of warts at the most inopportune of times. Simpson is unlikely to earn a first-round grade on most teams’ boards going into the draft this year, but that doesn’t mean he won’t hear his name called in the first round in Pittsburgh because all it takes is one team to like what they see in the mirror.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Unlikely QB Who Likely Will Get Picked in the First Round of the NFL Draft.
