As the U.S. government begins the final withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, U.S. President Joe Biden has pledged that counterterrorism efforts as well as “diplomatic and humanitarian work will continue.” But it is unclear how the United States and the international community will make good on those promises. Although the Afghan government may be able to survive in the near term, the security situation is almost certain to deteriorate, limiting access for both military and humanitarian assistance. If the United States is to mount an effective counterterrorism effort and facilitate crucial humanitarian assistance from the United Nations, it must focus its diplomatic efforts on finding partners in the region. Those partners are in Central Asia.
In his announcement of the withdrawal, Biden promised the world: “We will not take our eye off the terrorist threat. The United States will reorganize our counterterrorism capabilities and assets in the region to prevent the reemergence of terrorist threat in Afghanistan.” The commander of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie Jr., subsequently testified before Congress that over-the-horizon operations against terrorists would be “difficult.” In practice, to confront terrorist threats, the United States will need to position forces and/or intelligence assets near Afghanistan. Even without the permanent presence of U.S. combat troops in neighboring countries, access to those countries would be needed to train and coordinate with partner forces, including Afghan military units, that could conduct the operations themselves inside the country.
Amid the backdrop of civil war, the humanitarian crisis will also necessitate United Nations’ and international humanitarian nongovernmental organizations’ access to Afghanistan from neighboring countries. Afghanistan faces a significant drought, reducing access to food. The United Nations recently estimated more than 18 million people there—around half of the population—requires humanitarian assistance, which is double the 9 million people in need in 2017. It is therefore imperative the United Nations and international community not only plan to distribute aid during a possible civil war inside Afghanistan but also from neighboring countries should Afghanistan and the Taliban become inhospitable for aid organizations.
