For decades, American politicians and investors have snickered at the nations that gave birth to Western democracy—Italy and Greece—as examples of fiscal excess. Italy, with its revolving-door governments, and Greece, with its bailouts and austerity hangovers. But now, it’s their transatlantic descendant that’s writing the biggest checks.
According to new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), America’s debt—which recently surpassed $38 trillion—is set to rise faster than almost any advanced economy’s, climbing from roughly 125% of GDP today to about 143% by 2030. That would push the U.S. above both Italy, which has a debt that is expected to hover near 137% of the country’s GDP, and Greece, expected to fall to around 130%. For the first time in modern history, Washington could find itself borrowing more, relative to the size of its economy, than the very nations it once held up as cautionary tales.
