Note: While a big part of fantasy football research is trying to assess how players will do when they go to a new team, it’s also critical to get a handle on what the old team is doing to replace those players. It’s an opportunity for players to step up and fill the void. In this series, we’ll examine six teams that had key departures this offseason and must find new ways to replace key fantasy production.
One of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL has a lot to make up for in its receiving game.
The Tennessee Titans lead the NFL this offseason in vacated target percentage by a wide margin. The totality of the passing pie in Nashville isn’t all that big—the team has been bottom 10 in passing attempts and top 10 in rushing attempts each of the last three seasons—but a huge chunk of it is there for the taking after A.J. Brown was traded, Julio Jones was released and Anthony Firkser left in free agency.
There are 351 targets from the 2021 AFC No. 1 seed up for grabs. That’s the second-most vacated targets in the NFL, behind only the Chiefs (360). Due to Tennessee’s low passing rate, those 351 targets account for a whopping 67.1% of its total, according to 4for4.com.
Brown saw a team-high 105 targets in 2021, Jones was third on the team with 48 and Firkser and free agent Chester Rogers tied for fourth-most with 43 apiece. Tennessee’s top returning receiver is Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. He was targeted 57 times a season ago, second-most on the team.
Of course, the Titans offense revolves around running back Derrick Henry, who finished top 10 in rushing yards in 2021 despite missing nine games. That forced the team to rely on Ryan Tannehill’s arm more often in the second half of 2021, and his production dipped as a result. Expect head coach Mike Vrabel to lean heavily on a healthy Henry once again, which means there may be even fewer targets to go around.
Tennessee’s run dependence doesn’t negate the void in its receiver room, and there’s value to be gleaned for fantasy managers depending on how it is filled. The Titans front office acknowledged what it lost in the offseason and brought in a trio of pass catchers to fill that gap. Enter The Replacements.
Treylon Burks
Burks is the heir apparent to Brown. Tennessee used the 18th pick in this year’s draft, which it acquired from Philadelphia in the Brown trade, to acquire his replacement. With that selection, the Titans got who they hope will be Brown 2.0, only cheaper. Burks compiled 1,104 yards and 11 touchdowns on 66 catches during his junior year at Arkansas. He averaged better than 16 yards per catch in college and is a dynamic yards-after-catch threat.
The recent history of first-year receivers making a quick impact is promising for Tennessee’s first-rounder. Burks’s workload may look similar to his predecessor’s—he’ll have to do a lot with a little. Brown saw a team-high 84 targets as a rookie and managed to turn 52 catches into 1,051 yards. Burks has a ton of upside, but he will by no means have a monopoly on the target share.
My colleague Michael Fabiano dubbed Burks a winner among rookie skill position players, writing “while Burks still has work to do on his route running, he’s in a position to see a ton of targets in an offense that doesn’t have much experience at wideout beyond Robert Woods.” Which brings us to our next Titans pass catcher.
Robert Woods
The former Rams receiver tore his ACL in November and was traded to the Titans in the offseason for a 2023 sixth-rounder. He was on the field for OTAs with a knee brace on and he did not show any signs of a limp. Woods also offered a positive update on his injury recovery at a recent public appearance.
With more than 7,000 career yards and a pair of 1,000-yard seasons under his belt, Woods is Tennessee’s most experienced receiver. He had 556 yards on 45 catches through nine games when he went down in 2021. Woods has never been a deep threat or a volume touchdown scorer. However, he’s a solid, possession receiver whose strength as a blocker will fit right in with Tennessee’s smashmouth identity.
It’s unclear how he’ll rebound from his injury. Up until last season, Woods had never missed more than four games in a season. The number of targets he sees, regardless of his recovery, is bound to drop just by nature of the Titans offense. Woods was targeted 129 times in his last full season—no Titan has seen that many targets since 2015. Woods is used to sharing the workload after playing alongside Cooper Kupp for years in L.A., plus his skillset is plenty different from Burks. They should make for a respectable 1-2 duo.
Austin Hooper
Hooper’s fantasy revival could come in Nashville. His two seasons with the Browns were largely disappointing considering what he showed with the Falcons. Even if Hooper can’t tap into his TE1 tendencies from his time in Atlanta, he’s a much better target for Tannehill than Firkser or Geoff Swaim, neither of whom broke 300 receiving yards last season.
Tannehill has a positive history when it comes to targeting tight ends. Even with limited options last season, seven of his 21 touchdowns went to tight ends. Jonnu Smith was one of Tannehill’s favorite targets the season before. Smith hauled in 41 passes for 448 yards and eight touchdowns in 2020, the second-most on the team. Hooper’s depressed receiving numbers in Cleveland were, in part, a result of the Browns’ propensity to run the ball, much like the Titans. If anything, his 6’4” frame will be useful around the goal-line.
Returning Players
Considering the pass catchers Tennessee lost and the subsequent moves it made to fill those gaps, not much faith is being put in the returning skill position players. Oftentimes, vacated targets are funneled to the running back position, but that won’t be the case with Henry, who has less than 100 career catches.
The Titans’ presumptuous WR3 and top returning receiver, Westbrook-Ikhine, doesn’t have much offseason hype from a fantasy perspective. Tennessee elected to bring him back on a one-year deal, but if Woods is healthy Week 1, don’t expect to see him employed in many three-wide receiver sets—the Titans ran 11 personnel at the third-lowest rate in the NFL, according to Sharp Football Stats.
Tennessee runs 12 personnel above the league average rate, which would put returning tight end Geoff Swaim on the field often with Hooper. The new faces in Nashville will lead the pass catching corps, but Tannehill does have familiarity with Westbrook-Ikhine and Swaim. Still neither profiles as fantasy contributors.
