Despite the bright start to Andy Burnham’s premiership, and Reform UK’s sudden disarray, a shadow still hangs over British centre-left politics. Labour has a small poll lead, a cautious air of confidence and a leader who seems energised rather than overwhelmed by trying to solve the country’s problems. Meanwhile, Reform is having a terrible 2026: mired in deepening funding scandals, losing winnable byelections and, thanks to the drama and novelty of Burnham’s leadership coup and new government, no longer the freshest story around.
Yet Reform UK’s support has either held up or fallen only slightly in most polls since Burnham entered Downing Street. Even in the Makerfield byelection, where he beat it more decisively than expected, Reform’s vote share and total support actually rose. Nigel Farage may have spent the year uncharacteristically avoiding journalists, or in his prickly rather than jolly public mode, but the overwhelming majority of Reform supporters, almost a quarter of the electorate, remain faithful. “Power is within our grasp!” insisted Zia Yusuf, Reform’s home affairs spokesman, at its party conference in Birmingham on Friday, and they applauded with determined gusto.
