The world’s attention remains fixated on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, but the four-year slog of Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to have an outsized impact on global energy markets, especially as diesel prices hit all-time highs at the end of this week.
The war in Ukraine has caused periodic oil disruptions in the Black and Caspian seas and to pipelines and terminals, but the biggest growing impact is Ukraine’s rising success targeting Russia’s refining network with long-distance drone attacks. An estimated 40% of Russia’s oil-refining infrastructure is now offline, and Russia has cut off its diesel exports—resulting in about 3% of daily, global diesel supplies removed from markets.
