Rory McIlroy is fresh off of his second outright win on the PGA Tour this season, drilling a clutch approach shot on the 72nd hole to defeat Robert McIntyre by one stroke at the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open. McIlroy has logged T9 finishes or better in six consecutive events entering The Open Championship this week, where he’ll make his return to Royal Liverpool, which was the site for his 2014 Open Championship victory.
As such, McIlroy is currently being valued alongside Scottie Scheffler as the consensus outright betting favorites, both available to bet on at +650 on FanDuel Sportsbook. There are quite a few trends that exist around major championship events, but McIlroy and Scheffler have quite a bit of confidence based on how they have been performing in recent events.
Scottie Scheffler is still the World's No. 1 ranked golfer, likely due to his ridiculous consistency. The Texas native has logged seven consecutive T5 finishes or better since mid-May, relying on his irons, ranking first in strokes gained, including off the tee, approaching the green, and tee-to-green. Yes, his putter has held him back from a few more wins, but Scheffler always winds up with a T12 finish. He has 18 T12 finishes in 19 events played this season, which is absolutely mind-blowing.
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There has not been a repeat Open Championship winner since Padraig Harrington achieved this feat in 2007 and 2008, so Cameron Smith being valued at +1600 for his outright odds makes sense. We saw how much of a change links courses can provide compared to other venues on the PGA Tour during the Scottish Open last week, with coastal winds replacing the water hazards and tree-lined fairways that tend to be the primary hazards in the United States.
Expect a lot of players who grew up playing and competing on links-style courses, like Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, and Shane Lowry to maintain a strong comfort level over other players. Whether it’s the deep pot bunkers, tall fescue rough, or the undulating fairways and slow-paced fescue greens, Royal Liverpool is shaping up to be quite a test for the world’s best golfers ahead of the 151st Open Championship.
Let’s review the top outright betting odds for The Open Championship, followed by previous winners, relevant betting stats, and a course layout review of Royal Liverpool Golf Club. To conclude, we’ll provide reasons why you should bet on certain players based on their skill set, course history, current form, and value.
The Open Championship Betting Odds
2023 Open Championship Betting Preview
Previous Winners
- 2022 - Cam Smith (-20)
- 2021 - Collin Morikawa (-15)
- 2019 - Shane Lowry (-15)
- 2018 - Francesco Molinari (-8)
- 2017 - Jordan Spieth (-12)
Relevant Betting Stats
- Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
- Strokes Gained Approach the Green
- Greens in Regulation percentage
- Sand Save percentage
- Birdie Average
- Strokes Gained Putting
Course Layout
Royal Liverpool has been converted from a par 72 to a par 71, running just north of 7,300 yards in length. Like any links course, the tall fescue grass serves as the primary rough, while deep pot bunkers are small in surface area but incredibly difficult to recover from. Since 2014, there have been significant changes made to Royal Liverpool, overseen by Martin Ebert, primarily focusing on the back nine.
Players will have small targets to land their approach shots on the fescue greens, which measure roughly 11.5 feet via Stimpmeter. Compared to 13 feet on Bentgrass greens, it’s a much more forgiving surface that prevents putts from flying off of the greens. Royal Liverpool opens with four consecutive par 4 holes, while the former 10th hole par 5 has been re-constructed into a lengthy par 4. Irons reign supreme on links courses, so players who can deliver precise approach shots in windy, wet conditions should prevail.
Top Players To Bet in the Outright Market: Open Championship Winner
Rory McIlroy (+700) (Bet $100, to collect $800) Get the best Rory McIlroy Odds at DraftKings
It just feels like a week where Rory McIlroy is poised to shine bright during his return to Royal Liverpool. The Northern Irishman just recorded his second outright win of the PGA Tour season at Renaissance Club, a similar styled links course, while he’s been consistently producing T9 finishes or better in the last few events that he’s competed in. McIlroy has the strongest driver, sharp irons, and a putter that appears much more comfortable on slower fescue greens. Let’s place a confident multi-unit wager on McIlroy’s outright odds at +700 on DraftKings Sportsbook before they shorten with a strong opening round.
Rickie Fowler (+2500) (Bet $100 to collect $2,600) - Get the Best Rickie Fowler Odds at FanDuel
After ending his four-year winless drought, Rickie Fowler has momentum entering Royal Liverpool. It helps to know that Fowler nearly dethroned McIlroy during his outright win at the 2014 Open Championship on this course, finishing with a -5-under-par round, outpacing McIlroy by four strokes. This season, Fowler is dialed in with his irons and putter, ranked 8th in SG Tee to Green, 7th in SG Approach, 17th Around the Green, and 31st in SG Putting. He also ranks 21st in Total Driving, 17th for Greens in Regulation Conversion at 69%, and 8th in Birdie or Better Conversion percentage. 25/1 is a solid value for Fowler, who is seeking the first major win of his career, so let’s invest a unit accordingly on his outright odds.
Tyrrell Hatton (+2500) (Bet $100, to collect $2600) - Get the Best Tyrrell Hatton Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
I’m very bullish on this 25/1 range of golfers at FanDuel Sportsbook. Tyrrell Hatton looked like he was going to run away with the Genesis Scottish Open victory at times last week, but he faltered down the stretch, recording multiple bogeys on the back nine to eliminate himself from contention. I’m not scared to run back to Hatton this week. He’s familiar with links courses, has a strong bounce-back history, and is ranked third in Strokes Gained Total this season on the PGA Tour. Hatton is playing great all around, ranking 9th in SG Tee to Green, 10th Off the Tee, 14th in SG Approach, and 6th in SG Putting. I know he only has one victory on the PGA Tour, which came three years ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but I’m willing to wager half a unit on his upside at 25/1.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) (Bet $100 to collect $2600) - Get the Best Tommy Fleetwood Odds at DraftKings
Another Englishman looking to improve his legacy with an outright win is Tommy Fleetwood. He’s a crowd favorite and saw his best opportunity to end his PGA Tour winless streak evaporate during the four-hole playoff at the RBC Canadian Open. Fleetwood looked like he was going to make a run for the outright win at Renaissance Club during the Scottish Open last week, but he was unable to convert a few short birdie putts, ultimately sealing his fate with a T6 finish, due to a +2 final round. The 32-year-old Englishman possesses all of the requisite skills needed to secure an outright win, even in a stacked major field, ranking 19th in Scrambling, 3rd in Overall Putting Average, and 7th in both SG Tee to Green and Around the Green. Let’s wager half a unit at 25/1 for Fleetwood to capture his first win in epic fashion in his home country at the final major event of the season.
Dustin Johnson (+3500) (Bet $100, to collect $3600) Get the Best Dustin Johnson Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dustin Johnson is always lurking near the top of the leaderboard by the end of a major, so I like his value at +3500. Last year, Johnson recorded a T6 finish at St. Andrews, going -9-under-par across his first two rounds, before quietly finishing with -4-under-par in the final two rounds. He has a strong driver, precise irons, and tends to sink long birdie putts in clutch moments. Johnson has consecutive T10 finishes in the Open Championship, having finished T8 and T6, at the previous two Open Championship events, so I like his winning outlook at Royal Liverpool, where he logged a T12 finish during McIlroy’s win in 2014.
