January often feels like the midway point for the college basketball season. After two full months of games — and as conference play begins in earnest — stars have emerged to help the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders.
On the women’s side, there are just seven undefeated teams left. We can break them down into two categories.
Three of those teams are greatly exceeding expectations and taking advantage of schedules that are a bit softer than those of the other unbeatens. But nonetheless, they enter 2024 with zero losses. They are: West Virginia, Oregon State and TCU. A round of applause for those three.
The other four are teams that more recently have established themselves as powers in women’s basketball. They’ve been tested. They’ve played tough schedules. They have signature victories. They should compete for their respective conference titles, and they’re now expected to make deep runs in March.
Those teams are: Baylor, N.C. State, South Carolina and UCLA.
For the past few weeks, the 36 voters on the Associated Press Top 25 Poll have agreed that South Carolina was the nation’s top team. And of course, there’s good reason for that. The Gamecocks have marquee wins over Notre Dame, Utah and North Carolina, and they rank first in the nation in offensive and defensive rating, according to HerHoopStats.
What Dawn Staley is doing with South Carolina this year is incredibly impressive. She lost all five starters – all of whom were WNBA Draft picks – from a team that won the SEC and went to the Final Four last year, and the Gamecocks still look like juggernauts in the sport with players like Raven Johnson, MiLaysia Fulwiley and Kamilla Cardoso leading the way.
But this week, I diverged from the rest of the AP voters.
I put UCLA at No. 1.
Celebrating with an 8-clap in front of a packed house >>>>
Thank you to everyone who came out and helped us close out an 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 2023! 🥳#GoBruins pic.twitter.com/ErfQ9EEJkx
— UCLA W. Basketball (@UCLAWBB) January 1, 2024
After the Bruins beat rival USC on Saturday – a previously unbeaten team armed with Freshman of the Year frontrunner Juju Watkins – I felt compelled to take a closer look at the resumes of UCLA and South Carolina.
Here are the facts:
- UCLA has four wins this season over currently ranked AP Top 25 teams (UConn, Florida State, Ohio State and USC). South Carolina has just two (Notre Dame and Utah) after North Carolina fell out of the poll this week.
- If you want to judge teams by where they were ranked when the games occurred, fine. UCLA beat two top 10 teams (No. 7 UConn and No. 6 USC) while South Carolina has only topped one (No. 10 Notre Dame).
Simply put: I think UCLA has played a tougher schedule.
POLL ALERT: South Carolina still No. 1 in AP women's basketball poll, though no longer unanimous; Syracuse enters AP Top 25.
Full poll: https://t.co/ZpzgqczgyX pic.twitter.com/p2cnhP9bwj
— AP Top 25 (@AP_Top25) January 1, 2024
I’ve also seen both of these teams play in-person this season: South Carolina three times, and UCLA once at the Hall of Fame Showcase at Mohegan Sun. To me, the Bruins looked like the better team. Kiki Rice, Londynn Jones and Charisma Osborne make for a dynamic backcourt trio, and Lauren Betts controls the paint and protects the rim in a way that few players can, which is why the Bruins are No. 1 in rebounding rate at 63.4%.
I also believe that UCLA’s best win – take your pick of either a neutral site triumph over UConn or a home victory over USC – is better than South Carolina’s best win, which is probably the Gamecocks’ season-opening shellacking of Notre Dame. Two months into the season, the Irish – fresh off an upset loss to Syracuse – don’t look as good as the Huskies or Trojans.
Further, I don’t think South Carolina has done much yet to make a convincing argument as to why it is leaps and bounds better than UCLA. The Gamecocks rose to the top spot in Week Two simply because they had the best Week One victory after the preseason top two – LSU and UConn – lost to Colorado and N.C. State. Some voters selected Iowa as No. 1 in Week Two, but they too joined the folks voting for the Gamecocks in Week Three after the Hawkeyes lost at home to Kansas State. South Carolina essentially became No. 1 by default and kept winning. The Gamecocks deserve credit for those victories, but it doesn’t mean that their place atop the sport is inarguable.
A big topic of conversation in women’s college basketball in recent years is the increased amount of parity. That’s still true this season. South Carolina doesn’t seem unbeatable, and neither does UCLA. Neither does Baylor or N.C. State. We could very well enter March with zero unbeaten teams.
At the halfway point in the season, there’s room for multiple teams to get No. 1 votes.
