Like many of his Wall Street peers, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius has been rethinking the odds of the U.S. economy falling into recession in 2023. With inflation slowly fading from its four-decade high and the labor market proving its resilience in the face of more than 17 months of aggressive interest rate hikes, he now believes there is just a 15% chance of a U.S. recession within the next year, down from the 35% possibility he forecasted in January.
“The continued positive inflation and labor market news has led us to cut our estimated 12-month U.S. recession probability further,” he wrote to clients Monday, noting that 15% is the average recession probability since World War II.
