Joe Biden, as US president, likes to stand above the fray, conscious of the dignity of his office and the awesome power he wields. Joe Biden, as Democratic party presidential candidate, running for a second term and determined to prove the doubters wrong, is happy to wade right in. It was this second, combative incarnation that was on display at George Washington’s war of independence base in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, on Friday. Biden came out punching.
His target was Donald Trump, the almost certain Republican choice to challenge him in November’s election. His theme was the threat that the former president, who continues to falsely claim that he won the 2020 contest, poses to the post-independence democratic tradition. “Today we’re here to answer the most important of questions: is democracy still America’s sacred cause?” Biden said. “America, as we begin this election year, we must be clear: democracy is on the ballot.”
Rhetoric aside, Biden and the Democrats do not lack facts to fortify their arguments. Trump applauded as “patriots” the rioters who attacked Capitol Hill and tried to overthrow the election in January 2021. He has spoken of abolishing the US constitution, assuming dictatorial powers and vengefully pursuing retribution against those who call him to account. They include federal judges who will oversee the nearly 100 criminal felony charges he faces this year.
The first votes in the Republican and Democrat 2024 election primaries and caucuses are due to be cast in Iowa (or, in the Democrats’ case, mailed) in the coming days.
Biden and Democrats running for Congress are highlighting issues such as abortion rights wrecked in 2022 by Trump-appointed supreme court justices, minority rights, the climate crisis and the post-pandemic recovery that has brought a return to growth and new jobs – for which the White House claims credit.
Yet Biden’s Valley Forge insistence that Trump is a “loser”, while accurate in retrospect, looks highly questionable going forward. American voters, on the whole, do not give their current president much credit for his domestic achievements, including the Inflation Reduction Act that boosted clean energy and cut healthcare costs. Biden’s national approval rating hovers around 40%.
Polls suggest that many voters think he is too old, at 81, to run again.
Biden’s feisty performance at Valley Forge, kicking off a busy schedule of campaign events, was partly designed to dispel such misgivings. Yet there are 10 months to go. Many wonder openly whether he will stand the pace. It is almost certainly too late to replace him as Democratic nominee – although vice-president Kamala Harris and California governor Gavin Newsom are often mentioned. And all the time Trump and the Republicans will be pounding him hard.
In some ways, Biden has been remarkably unlucky. He inherited huge damage caused by the Covid pandemic, a losing hand in Afghanistan and an extremely hostile China. Then came the biggest war in Europe since 1945, the cost of living crisis and raging inflation. Now there is the Israel-Palestine conflict, which has split Democratic voters.
Meanwhile, Trump, 77, unabashed by all the scandals, lies and pending court cases, is intent, as in 2016, on dividing Americans into warring camps for his own advantage. Obsessively pursuing the post-2020 vindication he craves, he is weaponising race, gender, class and issues such as taxes, migration and gun ownership. He is more than 50 points ahead of his nearest Republican rival. Nationally, he and Biden are neck and neck. A recent survey found Trump leading in five of the six most important “swing” states.
Only one thing is certain. It’s going to be a helluva fight.
