The next El Niño: when is it coming and how strong might this one be for Australia?

US authorities say there is a 62% chance of an El Niño developing by July, making heatwaves, droughts and bushfires more likely in Australia. Photograph: Outback Australia/Alamy

Spanning more than 12,000km along the equator and between 100 and 200 metres below the surface of the Pacific Ocean, there is a massive blob of warm water.

If enough of that water makes its way to the surface, it could set off an El Niño event that can push up temperatures around the globe and raise the risk of Australia suffering heatwaves, droughts and bushfires.