The Jammu and Kashmir poll results have set the stage for a National Conference-Congress government, with Omar Abdullah’s likely return as the chief minister, and the end of a decade-long hiatus for an elected government in the erstwhile state.
To many, the results may seem to be along expected lines. But they were far from it.
Most importantly, there was no fractured mandate in Kashmir despite the entry of many political actors. Voters even rejected the Awami Ittehad Party led by Engineer Rashid, who was released from Tihar jail just in time to conduct his campaign. They also ignored the independent candidates fielded by the banned separatist outfit Jamaat-e-Islami. Outfits like Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s DPAP, which were floated over the past five years, also collapsed along the wayside, including the People’s Conference led by Sajad Lone, who could only win his own seat.
Rashid experienced the most dramatic reversal of fortune. Just five months ago, he won the Baramulla parliamentary seat from north Kashmir while contesting from jail, securing a whopping 4,52,812 votes – two-thirds of the total – defeating political heavyweights such as former J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah and Sajad Lone. This boosted his presence across 15 of the 25 assembly segments in north Kashmir, but on October 8, it was clear that he had failed to make a mark even in his home turf Langate.
The message from Kashmir
The outcome demonstrates that voters in the valley were not confused by the crowded campaign but instead voted to ensure the mandate is not divided. This is what has driven the National Conference’s emergence as the single largest party in the region by far, bagging 42 seats.
But why did the other parties, including Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP, fail? Unlike the PC, Apni Party, AIP and the DPAP, which are marginal political players, the PDP has been a pan-Kashmir party, if not pan-J&K. It secured just three seats, a drastic fall from its tally of 28 in 2014.
So, what went wrong? The popular opinion in the valley goes that Mufti was punished for choosing to be a part of a coalition government with the BJP from 2015 until its collapse in 2018. The narrative that has caught on is that this alliance eventually paved the way for the withdrawal of J&K’s special status in August 2019.
In recent years, the PDP had also seen the exits of many senior party leaders who commanded significant followers in their respective constituencies. In the process, the party also lost its organisational structure on the ground.
The NC, on the other hand, suffered less desertions and remains deeply entrenched in the union territory as a regional political force, more so in the valley.
As for the other smaller valley-based parties, they are believed to have lost as they were either seen to have been set up by the BJP or were seen close to the Hindutva party. To an average voter in Kashmir, the presence of too many political players in the electoral campaign seemed more engineered than organic. Even Sajad Lone, in one of his interviews during the campaign, said that the current polls were “heavily engineered”.
Hurdles for Omar Abdullah
Now that Omar Abdullah is set to be the new chief minister of what is billed to be the weakest elected government in the country, his challenge wouldn’t be just dealing with the powerful Lieutenant Governor representing the BJP government at the centre. He will also be up against the BJP as a formidable regional opposition party with the second largest number of seats.
The saffron party increased its tally in the Jammu division from 25 seats in 2014 to 29 now. Should the NC-Congress alliance form the new government, as looks likely, it could be accused by the BJP of denying Jammu a credible representation.
With the BJP government at the centre and its LG effectively running the union territory, it is likely to be tough for the Omar-led coalition to hold its ground, let alone take steps to fulfil its promises.
On the stump in early September, Omar had said that his first priority, if elected to power, will be to pass a resolution against the revocation of Article 370. He may not be able to do so with the Congress as part of the coalition government, but people would expect him to raise the pitch for the restoration of statehood. In the meanwhile, his supporters, especially in Kashmir, would want the new government to be responsive, accountable and empathetic, the attributes that the LG administration was hardly inclined to display over the past five years of its reign.
Newslaundry was on the ground, reporting on issues close to the voter’s heart. Check out our coverage here. And if you like the work we did, help power Sreenivasan Jain’s show.
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