The global economy was already walking a tightrope, balancing tariffs, post-pandemic debt, and stubborn inflation. Then came the shockwave of the Iran war oil shock. Oil prices surged, gas bills climbed, and suddenly, everyday spending felt even heavier. Households began pulling back, prioritizing essentials over wants.
Models from Moody’s Analytics pushed recession odds close to a coin flip, while Oxford Economics warned that prolonged high oil prices could tip growth over the edge. Add layoffs into the mix and a cooling job market for fresh graduates, and the mood shifts fast – cautious, uncertain, value-driven. Consumers are not just spending less, but thinking harder about every dollar.
