Remember the roaring 20s? Even as Covid gripped the world, optimists piped up that the economy would come roaring out of the pandemic, bolstering incomes and kickstarting an almighty boom. Harking back to the Spanish flu pandemic of a century earlier, they saw a decade of glorious growth ahead.
Well, they were wrong. Ahead lies not roaring but snoring; no boom, but ever-deepening gloom. That is the message from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which are holding their spring meetings in Washington DC this week. In its economic outlook, the IMF not only outlines what a mediocre few years lie ahead, it is also worried that things could get even worse. As for the World Bank, it has published a 564-page book whose chief preoccupation is in its title: Falling Long-term Growth Prospects. It warns of a “lost decade in the making”, and projects that the meagre growth of the 2010s will “extend into the remainder of the current decade”. We may be less than a third of the way into the 20s but, as far as the serried ranks of the top economists in Washington are concerned, it is already game over.
