What are the chances of humanity avoiding a full-scale disaster, given that history suggests civilisational collapse has been mostly the norm rather than the exception? The answer, according to the latest UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, is that the odds of annihilation are lower than previously imagined. Scientists are clear that not enough is being done to head off a climate disaster. The IPCC suggests about 40% of the human race is living in the danger zone, and that many ecosystems are being irretrievably degraded. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, was forthright in describing the abdication of leadership by world powers as “criminal”. The world’s biggest polluters, he said, “are guilty of arson on our only home”.
No amount of global heating is safe. If the world’s average temperatures rise by 1.5C – the goal of the Paris climate agreement – the IPCC report warns that up to 14% of species on land face a very high risk of extinction. At 3C, not an outlandish rise, almost a third of life on terra firma could be gone. This report is a final warning. The next time the world’s scientists pronounce will be at the end of the decade – when it will be too late to stop the rot. That is why it remains essential to stick to the UN targets of cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 45% by 2030 and achieving global net zero emissions by 2050. And why it is hugely disappointing that current commitments will see emissions increase by 14%. This risks a world in social chaos.
