Russia is preparing for a long war in Ukraine. Recent reports put the number of Russian troops in Ukraine at about 320,000. They are not there to look at cathedrals. They are there to kill Ukrainians and take territory. Vladimir Putin wants to win the war. He is demanding “sweeping advances”. At the very least he wants to control the Donbas. There is absolutely no evidence that Russia is interested in any form of settlement to the conflict that will carry what the military expert Prof Lawrence Freedman calls “a whiff of defeat”.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit to western Europe this week should be understood in that light. The Ukrainian president – who visited London, Paris and Brussels in quick succession – knows that the Russians are not interested in peace negotiations. What is more, he knows that western European and US leaders now know it too. The logic of this recognition is that the western states have no alternative but to arm Ukraine to win some battles. Mr Zelenskiy’s trip to the west, like his trip to Washington at the end of last year, is designed to secure the weaponry which can make that possible.
