Looked at objectively, a bilateral trade agreement between Britain and the United States is of relatively small economic significance to this country. Back in 2020, Boris Johnson’s government estimated that a US deal “could increase UK GDP in the long run by around 0.07%” – a figure that is not exactly transformative. The view touted by some Brexiters that a US trade deal would fire up the entire British economy was always a fantasy, the product of deregulatory yearning for which there was little public support, even among leave voters. Any urge of that kind is clearly even more delusional now, in the wake of Donald Trump’s tariff wars.
Hopefully, the right’s across-the-board deregulatory horror is now a thing of the past. But global trade has new traumas too. Mr Trump’s protectionism and bullying of US rivals are resetting the terms. There are nevertheless specific reasons why it is in Britain’s interest to pursue freer trade talks with the US. Chief among these is the threat posed by current tariffs, especially on cars and pharmaceuticals, as well as the prospect that a 10% tariff will be reimposed on all UK exports to the US after the current pause ends in July.
