For a set of activities that are governed by clear rules, unpredictability is what makes sport a compelling watch. The Netherlands’ defeat of South Africa just a few days after Afghanistan’s triumph over England in the ICC Cricket World Cup would not have been predicted by even the keenest observers of the game. Where do these upsets rank among other victories by underdogs over favourites in all World Cup games?
To answer that question, we take recourse to the use of the Elo ratings method. Elo ratings, developed by professor Arpad Elo for games such as chess, can be replicated for other two-team sports as well. The Elo system assigns a rating to each team, using the results of previous international games. The ICC uses a similar system to rate and rank its teams but it only publishes the current rankings of each team.
We relied upon the work of Gaurav Sood and Derek Willis (outside_edge at github) who constructed an algorithmic approach to calculate monthly Elo ratings for each ICC cricket playing nation/team, to identify the Elo ratings at the start of each World Cup. Sood and Willis had brought out ratings for each team till late 2021, but The Hindu used the same method of extracting match information from ESPNCricinfo for later ODIs and found the Elo ratings till October 2023. More involved Elo calculations that account for individual player ratings have been undertaken by others such as Kartikeya Date (@cricketingview in X) but only for Test playing nations.
