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Fortune
Fortune
Greg McKenna

The bond market is pricing in a Trump recession

President-elect Donald Trump points out into a crowd as he rings the opening bell on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 12, 2024 in New York City. (Credit: Spencer Platt—Getty Images)
  • Trump may have used the stock market as a scorecard in his first term, but now the president and his economic officials appear willing to endure short-term economic pain to reshape America’s economy. That makes bonds more attractive to investors, who may raise their expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Continued fears of a “Trumpcession” are causing stocks to tumble, and investors are heading to the bond market in a bet that the Federal Reserve might soon be forced to cut rates. 

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