Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 7
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-5-0
All-time record: 19-36-3
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
After a dismal 1-5, I share a record with New England, Chicago, Denver, Arizona, and the New York Giants … but at least I’m not the Carolina Panthers!
Coping aside, last week was so close to being a win that it stings more than the blowout losses I encountered earlier in the year. The prediction of Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford would have been good if tight end Tyler Higbee didn’t drop a perfectly thrown ball at the goal line that was a sure touchdown.
Further pouring salt in my wound, Cincinnati Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd was the player I strongly debated over Stafford … Spilled milk, I suppose, but it goes to show how fickle this game is both in reality and on the prognosticative front.
While gaining momentum from going 2-4 would have felt much better, we have to dust off and keep going … there’s a lot of football yet to be played.
New York Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Washington Commanders
Since returning from last year’s torn ACL, Robinson has been a steady contributor for the hapless New York offense. In Week 3, he played just 22 percent of the snaps, so we won’t hold that against him, but the second-year pro still logged four receptions on his five targets. He has seen at least seven utilizations go his way in each of the last three games, topping out at last week’s eight-look day that resulted in a 100% catch rate and 62 yards, the second-best mark of his injury-shortened career.
New York played without quarterback Daniel Jones (neck) last week, and it’s not hard to connect the dots to Robinson being more productive. Veteran Tyrod Taylor surely isn’t the answer to the Giants’ woes, nor is he likely to be any worse than the man he is replacing. The entire offense looked more competent with the journeyman running the show, and there’s something to be said for less chaos creating a positive ripple effect.
Having Saquon Barkley (ankle) back on the field didn’t negatively impact Robinson’s target share, either, as the slot receiver garnered 28 percent of the looks. He also had a season-high 76.9% rate of routes run while seeing only 58.7% of the offensive snaps.
Washington has permitted serious work to the position in 2023. No team has surrendered more yardage in total, and this is the best matchup over the last five weeks, too, for per-game results in that category. It’s also the best for non-PPR points allowed, yards-per-reception average, PPR points per touch, and ease of scoring touchdowns in relation to volume. The 14th-fewest catches allowed per contest created the most TD grabs by a margin of two, coming at one every 7.2 receptions landed.
Of the 231.8 total PPR points granted to the position since Week 1 ended, receptions and yardage combine to account for 76.4% of the success. Nine receivers have posted at least 10 points in PPR, and four of them did it without even finding the end zone.
So we have a stellar matchup profile, an uptick in route involvement, a healthy target share, and more stability at quarterback … Robinson is poised for another quality showing — perhaps the best of his to-date 11-game career.
My projection: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 69 yards, 1 TD (19.9 PPR points)
